Torino hosts an inconsistent Monza side looking to pull away from the relegation zone

Ten points against seven, with just three separating them in the table: that is how Torino and Monza arrive at a lower-table Serie A clash that could come down to details. The Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino hosts a visitor still searching for its footing, while the home side looks to string together a good run and break away from uncomfortable territory.

Ignazio Abate's Torino sits tenth with 3 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses in seven matches, scoring 10 goals and allowing 9. Over its last five games the club has posted three wins, a draw and a loss, a stretch that includes two straight victories to close out that span. The eye-catching number comes from its home form so far in the 2026 Serie A season: in three matches at the Grande Torino, the club averages 1.003 goals scored per game and 1.657 allowed, without a single clean sheet yet, and tends to find the net between the 31st and 45th minute. Che Adams, Sandro Kulenovic and Giovanni Simeone are the names that show up most often among the scorers in that home sample.

Ivan Juric's Monza arrives in fourteenth place, with 2 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses in the competition, 13 goals scored and 15 allowed. Over its last five matches the team has two wins, a draw and two losses, bouncing between results without ever settling into a rhythm. On the road this Serie A season, across four matches, Monza averages 1.243 goals scored but concedes 2.748 per game, a steep number, and has likewise failed to keep a clean sheet away from home. The team tends to score between the 16th and 30th minute. Gustavo Varela shows up as the most frequent scorer in that sample, followed by Jay Robinson.

What the head-to-head history says

The two sides have met seven times, with a clear edge for Torino: 3 wins, 3 draws and 1 win for Monza, with the home side scoring 8 goals to 5 for the visitors.

Possible lineups

As a medium-confidence estimate, Torino could take the field with Lucas Perri in goal, Saul Coco, Pietro Comuzzo and Ardian Ismajli across the back line, a midfield of Alessio Cacciamani, Rolando Mandragora, Nikola Vlasic, Niccolo Fortini, Daniel Braganca and Rafik Belghali, and Giovanni Simeone leading the attack.

On Monza's side, also a likely setup, Noel Tornqvist would start between the posts, with Eddy Kouadio, Andrea Carboni and Lorenzo Lucchesi in defense, Ricardo Mangas, Ebenezer Akinsanmiro, Samuele Birindelli and Michael Folorunsho in midfield, and a front three of Jay Robinson, Gustavo Varela and Dany Mota.

Odds and match outlook

Our model gives Torino a certain edge for playing at home, though the match is far from decided in advance.

With 46 percent for Torino against 26 percent for Monza and 28 percent for a draw, home-field favoritism exists but is not overwhelming: this is our own estimate drawn from the season's trends, not a betting line or a locked-in prediction. The expected goals back up that reading: 1.58 for Torino against 1.12 for Monza, a combined 2.70 that lines up with 71 percent of our projections pointing to more than 2.5 goals and 67 percent favoring both teams to score.

With that probability split and two defenses that have been leaking goals, the match looks set to be an open one. Torino will lean on home advantage to pull away from the middle of the table; Monza needs points to avoid drifting closer to the bottom.