Toronto FC rallies in stoppage time to beat CF Montreal 2-1

There was barely a breath left before the final whistle, and Toronto FC looked headed for another lackluster result at BMO Field. But soccer sometimes saves its best twists for stoppage time: in just two minutes, between the 92nd and 94th, Toronto flipped a match it had been losing and came away with a 2-1 win over CF Montreal in MLS.

The match had been even and congested through the first half, goalless but with chances for both sides: Josh Sargent tested the goalkeeper with a header and also with his right foot inside the box, while Alexis Sanchez fired a shot that Toronto's keeper smothered low to the ground. Nothing changed on the scoreboard before the break.

Montreal broke the deadlock right at the start of the second half. In the 50th minute, after a corner kick and an initial save off Matty Longstaff's effort, Daniel Rios showed up in the middle of the box and finished with his left foot into the center of the goal to make it 1-0. The visiting side, which had come in needing results in the standings, had reason to dream of three points: they created several dangerous chances afterward through Fabian Herbers and Prince Owusu, including a shot from the latter that struck the right post in the 79th minute.

Toronto, with Daniel Sallloi and Theo Corbeanu probing down the wings, couldn't find a way through despite generating more clear-cut chances according to the stats. The script flipped in stoppage time. In the 92nd minute, a cross from Niklas Dorsch found Lewis Morgan, just off the bench, who finished left-footed from point-blank range to tie it up. Two minutes later, with Montreal still trying to regroup, a counterattack built by Corbeanu ended at the feet of Djordje Mihailovic, who tapped the ball in next to the left post to make it a final 2-1.

What the numbers say

Montreal was sharper in overall volume, with more shots and more shots on target, but Toronto had the clearer chances of the match.

According to our xG estimate calculated from the match's shots, Toronto generated 2.485 expected goals to Montreal's 1.431, a gap that ends up matching the big chances count fairly well: four for the home side against just one for the visitors.

Our preview had given Toronto a 47% chance of winning, against 27% for a draw and 26% for a Montreal win, with expected goals of 1.64 for the home side and 1.17 for the visitors. The final result ended up matching that favoritism, though the path there was far tenser than any projection could have anticipated: Toronto needed two goals in stoppage time for the scoreline to reflect what the model had predicted before kickoff.

What it means in the standings

In the Eastern Conference table, Toronto FC sits in 11th place with 32 points, while CF Montreal is 15th with 24 points, an 8-point gap between the two. For Montreal, who came in needing a result, the late double blow stings even more: they had the match in hand for over 40 minutes and watched it slip away in added time.

For Toronto, on the other hand, it's the kind of result that can shift the mood in a locker room: a match that looked all but lost ended up going their way thanks to two sharp strikes from Lewis Morgan and Djordje Mihailovic right when there was no time left for Montreal to respond.