Tottenham and Everton Fight for Upper-Table Ground as Spurs' Scoring Drought Bites

Zero goals scored in three matches. That's the state of Tottenham Hotspur heading into this clash with Everton at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, and that number alone explains why the Spurs sit 18th in the Premier League with just one point. Everton, meanwhile, arrive as visitors in a far calmer moment, though with no room to relax in a table that's still packed tight.

Tottenham's league record makes for grim reading: three matches played, no wins, one draw and two losses, with zero goals scored and five conceded. Over their last five matches (a different sample that mixes competitions), the Londoners have posted a draw, a loss, a win, another loss and another draw, which is to say just one win and two defeats in that stretch. The underlying number that best explains this scoring crisis is that they have only one point from three matchdays and are already in the drop zone.

Everton are working with an entirely different set of feelings. In the league they've collected one win and two draws from three matches, with no losses, five goals scored and three conceded. Those numbers put them 8th, just 4 points behind Tottenham in the table, a reminder of just how tight the middle and lower half of the Premier League is barely three matchdays in. In their last-five-matches sample, the Merseyside club have gone loss, win, win, draw, draw, a run that backs up the sense of solidity reflected in the fact that they still haven't lost in the league.

What the head-to-head record says

The history between these two clearly favors Tottenham: of 8 meetings, the Spurs won 5, there were 2 draws and Everton took just 1 win, with an aggregate of 17 goals for the home side against 7 for the visitors. It's a long-view stat, though, one that sits oddly against a Tottenham side that right now simply can't find the net.

Likely lineups

With low confidence based on our own data projections, Tottenham could go with Antonin Kinsky in goal, a back line of Jan Paul van Hecke, Archie Gray and Andy Robertson, and a crowded midfield of Mathys Tel, Rodrigo Bentancur, Sandro Tonali, Conor Gallagher, Mateus Fernandes and Lucas Bergvall, with Mikey Moore as the attacking focal point. Everton, with medium confidence in their projected XI, would lean on Jordan Pickford between the posts, a back four of Vitalii Mykolenko, James Tarkowski, Merlin Rohl and Jarrad Branthwaite, and a midfield of Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, James Garner, Iliman Ndiaye, Harrison Armstrong and Tyrique George, with Thierno Barry up top. Worth noting, both lineups are estimates based on recent matches, not confirmed selections.

The odds

Our model, built on this season's trends, points to a tight match with a slight lean toward the home side:

Those figures are tightly bunched across all three outcomes, suggesting a match without a clear favorite despite the gap in the standings. It's worth keeping in mind that this is our own estimate drawn from the season's trends, not a fixed prediction or a betting line. The model also puts the probability of more than 2.5 goals at just 33%, and the chance of both teams scoring at a striking 0%, which lines up with the scoring drought Tottenham are enduring in the league.

With a Tottenham side desperate to rediscover the net and an Everton team looking to protect their unbeaten run, Tottenham Hotspur Stadium hosts a matchup the table paints as lopsided, but one the model's own numbers make considerably closer than it looks at first glance.