Troyes and Marseille battle for breathing room at the bottom of Ligue 1

Few matchups in Ligue 1 capture the bottom of the table quite like this one. Troyes (16th) host Marseille (17th) at the Stade de l'Aube with just a single point separating the two sides and both desperate to snap losing trends that are starting to pile up.

Stephane Dumont's Troyes come into this one with a record of one win, one draw and three losses so far this season, having scored 4 goals and conceded 11. Over their last five matches they've managed a draw, a win and three defeats, a run that confirms the club still hasn't found its footing. In this season's Ligue 1, combining home and away matches, Troyes average 0.8 goals scored and 2.2 conceded per game, with clean sheets in just 20 percent of those outings. That same sample points to the opening stretch of matches, the 0 to 15 minute mark, as their most productive window.

Marseille aren't in any better shape. Their record in the league stands at one win, no draws and four losses, with 7 goals scored and 8 conceded, and their recent form is the most alarming part of this fixture: five straight defeats in their last five matches. In that same season-long sample, home and away, Bruno Genesio's side scores 1.4 goals per game and concedes 1.6, with the 46th to 60th minute window as their sharpest attacking stretch. Amine Gouiri stands out as their top scorer in that span, with 4 goals.

A history that clearly favors Marseille

The head-to-head record offers little comfort for the hosts either: of 8 meetings between the two clubs, Troyes have never won, with 2 draws and 6 victories for Marseille, and a lopsided 6-20 scoreline across those matches.

Projected lineups

For Troyes, in a projection with medium confidence, the expected XI has Patrick Beach in goal, a back line of Anis Ouzenadji, Adrien Monfray, Junior Diaz and Lucas Maronnier, a midfield of Antoine Mille, Mouhamed Diop, Hugo Picard, Merwan Ifnaoui and Iron Gomis, with Renaud Ripart leading the attack.

Marseille, in a higher-confidence projection, should field Jeffrey de Lange in goal, a back line of Timothy Weah, CJ Egan-Riley, Emerson and Nayef Aguerd, a midfield of Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg, Himad Abdelli, Amine Harit, Angel Gomes and Igor Paixao, with Amine Gouiri as the central striker.

What the numbers say

Our model gives a slight edge to the visitors, though it doesn't rule out an upset at home:

The 57 percent figure makes Marseille the favorite, but not by an overwhelming margin: a draw and a home win combine for 43 percent, so a Troyes upset is well within reach. Our model's expected goals sit at 1.21 for the hosts and 2.10 for the visitors, a combined total of 3.31 that lines up with the 50 percent probability assigned to the match going over 2.5 total goals, while the chance of both teams scoring comes in at a modest 24 percent. It's worth noting this is our own estimate based on season-long trends, not a betting line or a definitive prediction.

With both teams in need of points and carrying negative streaks into this one, the clash at the Stade de l'Aube looks like a chance for either side to find some breathing room in the standings.