Udinese and Venezia meet in Coppa Italia with history favoring the Friulians

The Bluenergy Stadium hosts a direct Coppa Italia showdown between Udinese and Venezia, two teams arriving with identical perfect records in the competition: one match played, one win. The difference lies in how they got there. Udinese won 1-0 with a clean sheet, while Venezia came out on top in a more eventful match, 3-2. That contrast in styles is exactly what promises to give this matchup its flavor.

In recent form, Udinese arrives having gone two wins, a draw and two losses in their last five matches, closing out that stretch with a victory. The Friulian side has kept a clean sheet in 100% of their matches in this competition and tends to do damage between the 31st and 45th minutes. Keinan Davis, their top scorer in this Coppa Italia, is a player to watch in that window.

Venezia, meanwhile, arrives in more uneven form: three wins and two losses in their last five matches, with the two most recent defeats coming right before this trip to Udine. The Venetians have failed to keep a clean sheet in the tournament (0% clean sheet rate) and their best scoring window comes late, between the 76th and 90th minutes. Akor Adams, with two goals, and John Yeboah, with one, are their offensive references.

The head-to-head history clearly favors Udinese: of the four matches played, the Friulian side has won three, with a combined tally of 10 goals for and 6 against. Venezia has managed to win just one of those meetings.

Probable lineups

With reliability rated low based on recent matches, Udinese could line up with Maduka Okoye between the posts, a back line built around Oumar Solet as a fixture, with options among James Abankwah, Matteo Palma and Thomas Kristensen, plus Keinan Davis leading the attack alongside Jurgen Ekkelenkamp.

Venezia, with medium reliability, look set to stick with Filip Stankovic in goal, Joel Schingtienne as a regular in defense, and up front the pairing of John Yeboah and Akor Adams, the same duo that combined for all three goals in their last Coppa Italia match.

What the numbers say before kickoff

Our model projects an even match, with a slight lean toward the home side:

Expected goals also point to a tight contest: 1.45 for Udinese versus 1.13 for Venezia, with an estimated combined total of 2.58 goals on the scoreboard. These are figures from our own model, not betting odds, and they confirm that neither team enters as a clear favorite despite the history.

With Udinese looking to lean on their defensive solidity and Venezia trusting their ability to show up in the closing minutes, the match at the Bluenergy Stadium has all the makings of a game decided by fine margins.