Union Berlin and Schalke 04 collide in search of a first Bundesliga win

Neither Union Berlin nor Schalke 04 started the Bundesliga the way they'd hoped, and this clash at the Stadion An der Alten Försterei carries the weight of a test for two teams that badly need points. Union sit 15th with just one point from a possible six; Schalke are 14th, arriving with the same tally. Neither side has won yet this season.

Union's Bundesliga record so far is a draw and a loss in two games played, with 3 goals scored and 7 conceded. That said, if you look only at their last five matches across all competitions, a mixed sample, the club actually strung together three straight wins before the recent draw and loss, a sign that the current rough patch doesn't fully erase a stretch of good form. Schalke, for their part, also have a draw and a loss in their league record, but with a tougher underlying number: they haven't scored a single goal in those two matches, conceding 3. In their own short sample of the last five games, they've picked up two wins, two losses and a draw.

It's worth separating those figures from another stat drawn from a different, smaller sample, just two matches split between home and away in this same 2026 Bundesliga campaign: there, Union average 1.5 goals scored and 3.5 conceded per game, with Tim Skarke, Emmanuel Latte Lath and Leopold Querfeld as their only scorers, and a tendency to find the net between the 76th and 90th minutes. Schalke, in that same sample, haven't scored at all, concede 1.5 goals per game, and only half of those matches ended with a clean sheet; oddly enough, their most productive attacking window comes right at the start, between minute 0 and 15.

A head-to-head record that clearly favors the home side

History between the two clubs backs Union: across 8 previous meetings, the Berlin side has won 2, there have been 6 draws, and Schalke haven't won a single one. The goal difference tells the same story: 14 for Union against just 4 for Schalke over that span.

Likely lineups

With the caveat that these are projected rather than confirmed lineups, Union Berlin could go with Carl Klaus in goal, a back line of Tom Rothe, Josip Juranovic, Zeno Van den Bosch and Diogo Leite, a midfield of Aljoscha Kemlein, Rani Khedira, Livan Burcu and András Schäfer, and Ilyas Ansah alongside Emmanuel Latte Lath up top. Schalke, whose projected XI carries a bit more confidence, would likely feature Loris Karius between the posts, a defensive line of Timo Becker, Hasan Kuruçay, Nikola Katic and Junior Dina Ebimbe, a midfield of Soufiane El-Faouzi, Dejan Ljubicic, Adil Aouchiche, Ron Schallenberg and Vitalie Becker, with Moussa Sylla leading the line.

What the numbers say

Our model, built on season-long trends, makes Union the moderate favorite, though it doesn't rule out Schalke or a draw:

That 51% figure for Union is no announced blowout: nearly 50% of the probability is split between a draw and an away win, so the margin is tighter than the league table might suggest. It's worth clarifying that this is our own estimate drawn from season trends, not a betting line or a definitive forecast.

With both teams hungry for their first taste of good news in the standings, the Bundesliga offers up a match at the Stadion An der Alten Försterei that could come down to the small details: who makes better use of their scoring window, and who keeps a clean sheet a little longer.