Last-place Valencia host favored but shorthanded Villarreal at Mestalla

With just 6 points from nine matches and a goal difference of -9, Valencia come into this LaLiga clash sitting 19th in the table, one of only two automatic relegation spots. At Mestalla they host a Villarreal side that isn't exactly thriving either (12th, with 9 points) but arrives with the pressure spread a bit more evenly. It's not a top-of-the-table affair, but it's one that carries real weight at the bottom.

Valencia's record in the league tells its own story: 1 win, 3 draws and 5 losses, with 6 goals scored and 15 conceded. Their last five matches haven't offered much improvement either, one win, two draws and two losses, with the run closing out on back-to-back draws. Villarreal, for their part, have put together 2 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses in the league, with 13 goals scored and 13 conceded, a far more balanced ledger than their hosts'. Over their last five they've also gone back and forth: two wins, a draw and two losses, the most recent of those defeats coming in their previous match.

It's also worth looking at how each side performs in its own building. Playing at home in LaLiga this season, across a sample of 5 matches, Valencia are averaging just 0.40 goals scored per game against 1.80 conceded, with clean sheets in 40% of those matches; their most productive scoring window has come between the 46th and 60th minutes. Villarreal, on the road and also across 5 matches, are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded, without a single clean sheet in that span, and they tend to do their damage between the 31st and 45th minutes. These figures come from a different sample than the full league table, but they help paint a picture of each team's profile heading into this match.

The head-to-head record doesn't do Valencia any favors either: of the last 8 meetings, Villarreal won 4, there were 3 draws and just 1 win for the home side, with Valencia scoring 8 goals in total to Villarreal's 11.

Probable lineups

Javier Aguirre could stick with much of the lineup he's been using, with Stole Dimitrievski in goal and a back line of Gaya, Maffeo, De Haas and Tarrega. In midfield, look for Pepelu, Javi Guerra, Danjuma, Ugrinic and Guido Rodriguez, with Hugo Duro leading the attack. This is an estimated lineup, not a confirmed one, based on what we've seen in recent matches.

For the visitors, Inigo Perez is expected to go with Peter Gulacsi in goal, with Cardona, Pau Navarro, Renato Veiga and Freeman across the back. In midfield, Moleiro, Comesana, Pape Gueye, Saliba and Akhomach would line up, with Ayoze Perez up front. As with the home side, this is a probable lineup, inferred rather than officially confirmed.

What the numbers say before kickoff

Our model, built on this season's trends, gives a moderate edge to Villarreal, though the match is far from a foregone conclusion:

Those are three fairly close figures, especially between a home win and a draw, which points to a more open contest than the table alone would suggest. The model also projects expected goals of 1.23 for Valencia and 1.61 for Villarreal, a combined total of 2.84, in line with the 50% probability assigned to the match going over 2.5 goals. Worth noting: this is our own projection, not a betting line or a definitive forecast.

With Valencia needing points to climb out of the drop zone and Villarreal looking to settle into mid-table, Mestalla has more riding on this Saturday's match than its position in the standings might suggest.