Venezia looks to confirm favorite status against a Modena side desperate for results in Coppa Italia

The Pier Luigi Penzo will host a matchup with a clear favorite when Venezia welcomes Modena in the Coppa Italia. The home side's momentum stands in sharp contrast to the shaky form of a Modena team desperate for results, and everything points to a contest that could be decided from the opening whistle.

How the teams arrive

Venezia is riding a remarkable stretch: over its last five matches it collected four wins and a draw, without a single defeat. Offensively the club averages 1.667 goals scored per game and shows the same figure in goals conceded, though its defensive solidity stands out, having kept a clean sheet in 67% of its matches. It also tends to strike early, with its most productive scoring window coming in the first 15 minutes. John Yeboah leads the attack with three goals, followed by Emil Bohinen and Nunzio Lella with one apiece.

Modena's outlook is the opposite. Over its last five outings it managed just one win and four losses, a run that has exposed real fragility. Its most worrying number is that it failed to keep a clean sheet in any of its recent matches (0% of games with a shutout). Curiously, it shares with its rival a tendency to look for an early goal in the first 15 minutes, though holding onto that kind of advantage has been the real problem.

Head to head record

The all time series heavily favors Venezia. Of the 8 matches played between the two clubs, the hosts won 5, there were 2 draws and Modena has managed just 1 win. The goal difference tells its own story: 17 goals for Venezia against 9 for Modena across that span.

Likely lineups

Venezia's probable starting eleven, considered highly reliable based on recent patterns, would keep the core that has delivered results: Filip Stankovic in goal, a back line of Joël Schingtienne, Michael Svoboda and Bartol Franjic, a midfield of Antoine Hainaut, Issa Doumbia, Gianluca Busio and Ridgeciano Haps, and up front Kike Pérez alongside John Yeboah and Andrea Adorante.

For Modena, confidence in the projected lineup is low, reflecting the team's overall instability. Even so, recent trends point to Michele Pezzolato between the posts, a defense of Daniel Tonoli, Bryant Nieling, Alessandro Dellavalle and Steven Nador, a midfield of Yanis Massolin, Francesco Zampano, Matteo Cotali and Simone Santoro, with Giuseppe Ambrosino and Manuel De Luca forming the attacking pair.

Match probabilities

EnPelotas' statistical model has Venezia as the heavy favorite, though it's worth noting this is our own projection based on the season's trends, not a betting line or a definitive forecast.

The numbers back up Venezia's role as the dominant home side: a 73% chance of victory compared to a modest 8% for Modena, with 19% left for a draw. The expected goals figures, another in house projection, reinforce that reading: 2.17 for the hosts against just 0.58 for the visitors, a gap that points to a match with clear territorial and offensive dominance for the Venetian side.

With momentum on its side and history in its favor, Venezia will look to confirm its status as favorite against a Modena side that will need to reverse an unfavorable trend to pull off a surprise at the Pier Luigi Penzo.