Venezia and Fiorentina Seek First Win in Serie A Battle of Desperation

The Pier Luigi Penzo hosts a battle of desperation on Saturday: Venezia and Fiorentina both arrive pointless and stuck at the bottom of the Serie A table, so this matchup is, above all, the first chance for either side to snap an identical run of three straight losses.

Venezia sits 18th, with a record of 0 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses in the league, having scored 2 goals and conceded 7. Over its last five matches across all competitions, the club has managed one win and four losses. Fiorentina is no better off: it sits dead last at 20th, with the same 0-0-3 record but an even rougher goal difference, 1 scored and 9 conceded. Its last five matches in all competitions show one draw, one win and three losses.

Looking at each side's recent output in this season's Serie A alone (a small sample of just three matches, home and away combined, not to be confused with the overall league record), Venezia is averaging 0.67 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game, with no clean sheets, and tends to be most active between the 61st and 75th minutes. John Yeboah and Richie Sagrado stand out there, each with a goal. Fiorentina, in that same kind of sample, is scoring 0.33 goals per game and conceding 3, also without a clean sheet, with its busiest stretch between the 46th and 60th minutes, where Mateo Pellegrino is the only man to have found the net.

The head to head record between the two clubs, four meetings in all, tilts slightly in Venezia's favor: 2 wins, 1 draw and 1 win for Fiorentina, with the Venetians outscoring the Florentines 3 to 2.

Probable Lineups

With the caveat that this is a probable lineup, drawn from recent matches and carrying low reliability, Venezia would likely field Filip Stankovic in goal behind a back line of Armel Bella-Kotchap, Joel Schingtienne and Redouane Halhal. The midfield would feature Antoine Hainaut, Kike Perez, Gianluca Busio, Simon Sohm and Ridgeciano Haps, with Akor Adams and Albion Rrahmani leading the attack.

Fiorentina, under the same logic, would go with David de Gea in goal, protected by Radu Dragusin, Valde and Joao Mario at the back. In midfield, expect Marco Brescianini, Arthur Atta, Cher Ndour, Christ Inao Oulai and Nicolo Fagioli, with Albert Gudmundsson and Franco Mastantuono up top.

What the Numbers Say

Our model sees a tightly matched game, with a slight lean toward the visitors:

The numbers are nearly identical to what the standings suggest: just 2 percentage points separate the two sides, with the draw sitting around 28%. This is our own estimate based on the season's trends, not a definitive forecast or a betting line. The model also projects a combined total of 2.92 expected goals, in line with 67% of our projections calling for more than 2.5 goals in the match, though only 11% see both teams finding the net.

With both squads desperate for good news and defenses that have been struggling all season in Serie A, the Penzo could be the stage where one of these two clubs finally breaks into the win column.