Venezia and Udinese Go All In at the Bottom of Serie A

A direct battle for survival, the kind that counts double in the standings. Venezia, dead last with 3 points, hosts Udinese at the Pier Luigi Penzo, with Udinese sitting second-to-last on 5, in a Serie A clash where just 2 points separate the two clubs stuck in the relegation zone.

Venezia's numbers this season are rough: of 10 matches played, just one win, zero draws and nine losses, with 6 goals scored and 20 allowed. The last five games haven't been any better, just one win and four defeats. Udinese comes in with a slightly better overall record (1 win, 2 draws and 7 losses in 10 matches, with 11 goals scored and 23 allowed), though its recent form is nothing to celebrate either, four losses and a draw in its last five outings.

Looking at Venezia's home form in this season's Serie A, over a sample of 5 matches, the club averages 0.6 goals scored and 2 allowed per game, with clean sheets in just 20% of them, and tends to concede its goals between minutes 16 and 30. Udinese, meanwhile, as a visitor this season over 4 matches, averages 1.75 goals scored and 2.25 allowed, with a 25% clean sheet rate, and its most productive stretch comes between minutes 31 and 45. These are separate samples, not to be confused with the overall league record, but they do point to a game with goals at both ends.

What the History Books Say

The head-to-head record doesn't favor Venezia either: of 5 meetings, Udinese won 4 and Venezia just 1, with no draws, and an aggregate score of 12 goals for Udinese against 7 for Venezia.

Possible Lineups

With the caveat that this is an estimated, unconfirmed starting eleven, Davide Nicola's Venezia would likely line up with Filip Stankovic in goal; a back line of Matías Moreno, Juan Jesus and Redouane Halhal; a midfield of Antoine Hainaut, Simon Sohm and Kike Pérez; and up top, Akor Adams alongside John Yeboah. In the home trends, Adams and Hainaut stand out as the top scorers in that sample, with 2 goals each.

On Udinese's side under Paolo Zanetti, the likely lineup would have Maduka Okoye in goal, a defensive line with James Abankwah, Christian Kabasele and Matteo Palma, a midfield of Jesper Karlström, Hassane Kamara and Mërgim Vojvoda, and up front Jurgen Ekkelenkamp alongside Keinan Davis. Ekkelenkamp, in fact, is Udinese's top scorer on the road this season, with 3 goals in the sample.

Odds

Our model projects a close match, with a slight edge for the home side:

The draw and the away win come out exactly even, so there's no clear favorite beyond the small boost of playing at home. Expected goals, another of our own estimates, come in at 1.45 for Venezia and 1.16 for Udinese, a combined 2.6 that lines up with a 48% chance the match goes over 2.5 goals. The chance both teams score sits at 30%. All of this reflects the model's own reading, not betting odds.

With Venezia in last place and Udinese right on its heels, this clash at the Pier Luigi Penzo could go a long way toward shaping either team's mood for the rest of the Serie A season.