Werder Bremen and Augsburg Are Dead Even on Paper Ahead of a Back-and-Forth Clash

Three points separate these two clubs in the standings, but the feel around each side couldn't be more different: FC Augsburg arrives as one of the surprise packages of this early Bundesliga season, while SV Werder Bremen is still searching for its footing. The Weserstadion hosts a matchup in which both attacks tend to show up, so there should be no shortage of drama.

Werder Bremen sits tenth with a record of one win, one draw and one loss so far this campaign, having scored 5 goals and conceded 6. Over its last five matches the club has picked up two wins, one draw and two losses, an uneven run that reflects where Daniel Thioune's team currently stands. Augsburg, on the other hand, sits third with 7 points, built on two wins and a draw without a single defeat, and boasts a healthy goal difference (9 for, 3 against). Its recent form backs that up too: three wins, one draw and one loss over its last five outings under manager Manuel Baum.

It's worth looking at a few season trends as well, though it should be noted these come from a smaller sample than the league table: across three matches split between home and away in the 2026 Bundesliga campaign, Werder Bremen averages 1.67 goals scored and 2 conceded per game, without a single clean sheet, and its most productive stretch falls between the 61st and 75th minutes. Augsburg, over that same three-game sample, averages 3 goals scored and just 1 conceded, with a 33% clean sheet rate, and tends to find the net between the 46th and 60th minutes. Michael Gregoritsch stands out as its top scorer in that sample with 3 goals, while Niclas Füllkrug leads the way for Werder with 2.

An Even Head-to-Head Record

The all-time series between the two sides is about as balanced as it gets: of 8 meetings, Werder Bremen has won 2, Augsburg 3, with 3 draws, and each side has scored 11 goals. Few rivalries reflect this level of parity.

Possible Lineups

As a probable and estimated lineup, though with low reliability given the data available, Werder Bremen could send out Karl Hein in goal, with Amos Pieper, Olivier Deman and Marco Friedl across the back line, Ludovit Reis, Senne Lynen, Chuki, Marco Grüll and Jens Stage in midfield, and Niclas Füllkrug paired with Justin Njinmah up top.

For Augsburg, with medium reliability, the likely XI would have Finn Dahmen between the posts, Chrislain Matsima, Noahkai Banks and Calvin Brackelmann at the back, Marius Wolf, Fabian Rieder, Han-Noah Massengo and Hennes Behrens in midfield, and an attacking trio of Michael Gregoritsch, Robin Fellhauer and Anton Kade.

What the Numbers Say

Our model projects a tight match, with a slight edge toward the home side:

These figures are about as split as it gets: Werder Bremen's 36% and Augsburg's 34% leave the draw, at 30%, very much in the mix. This is our own estimate based on the season's trends, not a betting line or a definitive forecast. On top of that, our model puts the combined expected goals at 2.55, which lines up with two other markers: the probability of the match going over 2.5 total goals sits at 83%, and the probability of both teams scoring reaches 100%.

With a home side needing to rediscover its solidity and a visiting team that arrives unbeaten and playing with clarity, the Weserstadion has all the ingredients for a back-and-forth affair.