York City rides winning streak into FA Cup clash with free-falling Northampton Town

Three straight wins, a draw and a loss in the last five matches for one side; five losses in a row for the other. That's the contrast heading into York City's FA Cup clash with Northampton Town, a matchup between a team that's breathing easy and one that needs to stop the bleeding by any means necessary.

York City has strung together a solid run over its last five outings: three wins, a draw and just one recent loss, a form that backs up the favorite's tag it carries into this match. Northampton Town, on the other hand, is going through a rough patch, having lost its last five matches without exception, a run that looms large heading into this FA Cup tie.

On the competition itself there isn't much to go on yet: the seasonal trends pulled from the data correspond to just one match played by each side in this edition of the FA Cup, combining home and away form, so they should be taken with a grain of salt. In that small sample, neither side kept a clean sheet. York City's best scoring window came between the 16th and 30th minutes, with Mark Kitching and Josh Stones finding the net in that match. Northampton, for its part, did its scoring in that same sample late, between the 76th and 90th minutes.

What the head-to-head says

The two sides have met six times, with the edge going to Northampton Town: 3 wins to 2 for York City and one draw, with a combined 5 goals for York City against 8 for Northampton. It's a fairly even series on the scoreline but the visitors have been somewhat sharper in front of goal across those meetings.

Projected lineups

For York City, managed by Scott Lindsey, the projected XI keeps several regulars in place: Harrison Male in goal, a back line of Zak Johnson, Mark Kitching, Jeff King and Malachi Fagan-Walcott, a midfield of Ben Brookes, Alex Hunt, Ollie Banks and Hiram Boateng, and Ollie Pearce alongside Josh Stones up top. It's a projected lineup with a high degree of confidence based on recent matches.

Northampton Town, under Chris Hogg, would likely line up with Lee Burge between the posts, a back line of Jon Guthrie, Max Dyche and Conor McCarthy, a midfield featuring Tyrese Fornah, Nesta Guinness-Walker, Cameron McGeehan, Dean Campbell and Elliott List, and Sam Hoskins alongside Michael Jacobs leading the attack. Here the confidence level is more moderate, with more recent rotation up front.

What the numbers say

Our model, based on this season's trends, points to a clear edge for the home side:

That's a wide gap, nowhere close to an even matchup on paper. The expected goals estimate points the same way: 2.56 for York City against 0.70 for Northampton Town, for a combined total of 3.25. Those numbers suggest a match with goals in it and the home side setting the tone, though it's worth remembering this is our own projection, not a betting line or a locked-in forecast.

With York City riding a hot streak and Northampton Town looking to snap a bad run, the LNER Community Stadium will be the stage to see whether recent trends hold up on the pitch.