Zabiri's brace flips the script as Racing beats Alaves 2-1

Yassir Zabiri scored twice to flip the scoreline and send Racing Santander to a 2-1 win over Alaves at El Sardinero, in a LaLiga match that got tense down the stretch after Andre Almeida was sent off.

Alaves started the stronger of the two sides and made it count in the 17th minute: after a scramble inside the box, with several shots blocked by the home defense, Ville Koski poked the ball in from close range off a corner kick to make it 0-1. Racing, who had been controlling possession, didn't take long to respond. In the 37th minute, Inigo Vicente slipped a through ball to Zabiri, who finished with his left foot, low and inside the post, to make it 1-1 at the break.

The second half opened with the same script favoring the home side. In the 52nd minute, Zabiri struck again, this time smashing home from close range on the right side, the ball flying into the middle of the net to make it 2-1. It was his second goal of the night and the one that would prove decisive.

Alaves tried everything in the second half, with chances for Lucas Boye, Mariano Diaz and Jonny Otto all going begging, and the match heated up in the closing stages. In the 86th minute, a Jonny Otto header sailed over the bar off a Toni Martinez cross. A minute later came the most chaotic sequence of the night: the referee showed Andre Almeida a red card, the decision went to VAR, it was overturned, and then in the 88th minute, Almeida ended up seeing red anyway, leaving Racing with ten men for the rest of the match. The home side weathered the remaining minutes and held on for all three points.

By the numbers

Racing controlled more of the ball, with 57% possession to Alaves's 43%, and also completed more passes overall. Alaves, though, was sharper in front of goal: more shots, more shots on target and more corners.

That gap in attacking output shows up in the post-match expected goals: 1.477 for Racing versus 2.723 for Alaves. In other words, based on the quality of the chances created, the visitors deserved more than what the final score gave them, though this is a read after the fact and not a prediction.

In the pre-match projection, in fact, our model favored Alaves: 46% chance of an away win against 30% for Racing and 24% for a draw, with expected goals of 1.91 for Alaves and 1.53 for Racing. The result ended up going against that forecast: the side given less of a chance walked away with all three points thanks to Zabiri's finishing.

What it means in the standings

With this result, Racing Santander moves to 7 points in the competition, with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5 games played. Alaves, for its part, sits on 10 points, the product of 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5 matches, leaving a 3-point gap between the two sides in the table. For Racing, the home win comes in a tightly bunched midtable, while Alaves will have to shake off a defeat that, based on the match's own numbers, didn't fully reflect what the team produced on the field.