Alavés chases third win as winless Villarreal still seeks first victory

Alavés arrives at this LaLiga clash as one of the strongest starters in the league, hosting a Villarreal side at Mendizorroza that has yet to taste defeat but also hasn't found a win. Two very different starts to the season are about to collide.

The Babazorros sit fourth with 4 points after two matchdays: a win, a draw and no losses, with 4 goals scored and just 1 conceded. That defensive solidity shows up in their clean sheet rate of 50 percent, and in an average of 2 goals scored per game against 0.5 allowed. Alavés also tends to come alive late, with their most productive stretch falling between the 76th and 90th minutes. Over their last five matches they've posted three wins, one draw and one loss, a run that confirms the team is in good form.

Villarreal, meanwhile, sit ninth with only 2 points, the product of two draws in their first two league outings, having scored 4 goals and allowed 4. That's the clearest contrast with their upcoming opponent: the Yellow Submarine have yet to keep a clean sheet in the competition (0 percent). Still, their recent form over the last five matches, which includes games in other competitions, looks brighter: three wins and two draws, with no losses. The team tends to score mostly between the 31st and 45th minutes, right before halftime.

The gap between the two sides in the standings is just 2 points, which makes sense given that only two matchdays have been played and the table still says little about each squad's real level.

What the head to head says

Alavés and Villarreal have met recently: 8 matches, with 2 wins for the Basques, 3 draws and 3 wins for the side from Castellón. In terms of goals, the visitors come out well ahead: 15 for Villarreal against 9 for Alavés across that set of matches.

Possible lineups

Alavés' likely XI, rated medium reliability by our estimates, would keep Antonio Sivera in goal, with Ángel Pérez, Abde Rebbach, Nahuel Tenaglia and Ville Koski across the back line, Antonio Blanco, Pablo Ibáñez and Jon Guridi in midfield, and Toni Martínez leading the attack. For Villarreal, with reliability estimated as low given recent rotation, the lineup would feature Luiz Júnior in goal, Santiago Mouriño, Renato Veiga, Juan Foyth and Carlos Romero in defense, Alberto Moleiro, Pape Gueye, Nicolas Pepe and Santi Comesaña in midfield, with Ayoze Pérez and Georges Mikautadze forming the attacking duo.

What the numbers say before kickoff

Our model splits the probabilities quite tightly, with a slight lean toward the visitors:

These are three fairly evenly spread outcomes with no clear favorite: Villarreal's 41 percent doesn't come close to ruling out a home win or a draw. As for expected goals, the model's own estimate points to 1.38 for Alavés and 1.58 for Villarreal, a combined 2.96 that suggests a game with chances at both ends. Worth remembering that these figures are an in-house estimate based on the season's trends, not a closed forecast or a betting line.

With a home side that arrives unbeaten and steady at the back, and a visitor that hasn't lost but is still chasing its first win, Mendizorroza is set for a match in which neither team can afford to let its guard down.