Alavés and Osasuna Meet Unbeaten at Mendizorroza, with the Model Giving a Slight Edge to the Home Side

Nobody is dragging their feet into Mendizorroza. Alavés sits fifth and Osasuna sixth, separated by a single point in LaLiga, and both arrive without a loss this season. Rarely does a midtable matchup, at this point in the calendar, come with both squads so intact in confidence.

Alavés has posted two wins and a draw in its three LaLiga matches, with five goals scored and just one conceded. Over its last five games, a broader sample mixing competitions, the club has three wins, a draw and a loss. Osasuna, meanwhile, has also racked up two wins and a draw in its three league matches, though with less firepower: three goals scored against just one allowed. In its own five-game sample, the Navarrese side has been through a choppier stretch, with two early losses followed by a draw and two wins to end the run on a positive note.

Looking at offensive output in a separate sample, drawn from LaLiga 2026 over three matches, Alavés averages 1.67 goals scored per game (home and away combined) with a 67% clean sheet rate, and tends to strike more often between the 76th and 90th minutes. Osasuna, in that same reference, sits at 1 goal on average per match, also with a 67% clean sheet rate, with its most productive window falling between the 31st and 45th minutes. These are contextual figures rather than this season's official record, but they paint a picture of two teams that don't give up much at the back.

The head-to-head history is, to say the least, striking: across eight previous meetings, Osasuna has never lost to Alavés at Mendizorroza (five away wins and three draws), with a combined tally of 14 goals scored by the Navarrese side against just 5 for Alavés. That's a heavy precedent for the home team, though it says nothing about what will happen on the field today.

Probable Lineups

With medium confidence, Alavés could line up with Antonio Sivera in goal and a back line of Ángel Pérez, Abde Rebbach, Ville Koski and Nahuel Tenaglia, with Antonio Blanco and Pablo Ibáñez in midfield and Toni Martínez up top alongside Lucas Boyé. Osasuna, with a lower confidence estimate, projects Sergio Herrera in goal, a back line featuring Alejandro Catena, Jorge Herrando, Abel Bretones and Iñigo Arguibide, a midfield of Jon Moncayola, Rubén García, Aimar Oroz and Lucas Torró, and Ante Budimir leading the line. These are probable lineups drawn from recent matches, not official confirmations.

What the Numbers Say

Our model, based on the season's trends, points to a tight match with a slight edge for the home side.

The 40% mark for Alavés falls short of a clear favorite tag: the draw and away win combine for 60%, so the scale is far from settled. The estimated goal total, 2.48 combined, contrasts with our model giving just a 33% chance of the match going over 2.5 goals, though it does see a 67% chance that both teams find the net. Worth noting, these figures are our own estimate derived from the season's trends, not a betting line or a closed prediction.

With both sides unbeaten and pushing to stay in the conversation for the top places, Mendizorroza hosts a direct duel between two teams eager to keep their unbeaten runs alive. Recent history favors the visitors, but this season is telling a different story.