Albania sweats until stoppage time but edges past San Marino 2-1 on Asllani penalty

Albania got a real scare before closing it out in stoppage time. The team won 2-1 over San Marino at Arena Kombetare, but needed a penalty converted by Kristjan Asllani in the 92nd minute to keep things from getting complicated in the closing minutes against the group's bottom side.

The match was part of UEFA Nations League Group C1, and the script unfolded pretty much as expected: Albania took control of the ball from the start and found an early reward. In the 10th minute, Asllani struck with his right foot from outside the box and curled it into the top corner to make it 1-0. Before that he'd already given a warning with a shot that the San Marino goalkeeper managed to parry, after a Rey Manaj effort.

With the 1-0 lead in hand, Albania kept creating chances: Manaj, Elseid Hysaj and Arbër Hoxha all had opportunities before halftime, but the teams went into the locker room with the narrow advantage intact. In the second half, San Marino found a reward it wasn't expecting: Lorenzo Lazzari, who had come on from the bench, popped up in the middle of the box to finish a Lorenzo Capicchioni cross with his right foot and make it 1-1 in the 65th minute. It was the only shot on target San Marino needed to level the score.

The draw held for nearly half an hour, with Albania pressing down the flanks and firing shot after shot without finding the net. Myrto Uzuni, Mirlind Daku and Asllani himself all tried their luck, but their shots either flew high or were blocked. The breakthrough came in stoppage time: in the 89th minute, VAR flagged a handball penalty by Filippo Fabbri inside the box, and three minutes later Asllani made no mistake from the spot to seal the final 2-1.

A gap the numbers confirm

Albania's dominance showed clearly in the match stats. Albania finished with 69.6% possession and fired 26 shots to San Marino's 8, with an even wider gap in corners.

The xG calculated after the fact from the match's shots also points to a clear edge for Albania: 3.08 against just 0.66 for San Marino. That gap shows that, beyond the scare of the equalizer, nearly all the clearest chances fell to the home side.

What stands out is how this compared with the pre-match projections. Beforehand we gave Albania a 93% chance of winning, with just 1% for San Marino and 6% for a draw, and expected goals of 3.44 for the home side against 0.30 for the visitors. The final result, with San Marino briefly leveling the match in the second half, strayed quite a bit from that script before the stoppage-time penalty steered the scoreline back toward what we had projected.

What the result means in the standings

With this win, Albania reaches 9 points in 4 matches played, with 3 wins and 1 loss, and remains first in Group C1. San Marino, meanwhile, is still without a point: six matches without a single point show on its record 0 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses, with a goal difference of -15. The gap between the two teams in the standings stands at 9 points, a fair reflection of what played out on the field at Arena Kombetare.