Belarus thrashes San Marino 4-0 as Kontsevoy scores twice and Pechenin sets up three

Four goals, one in each of the final quarter-hours, and a scoreless deadlock that held firm until just before the break. Belarus routed San Marino 4-0 at Illovszky Rudolf Stadion in Group C1 of the UEFA Nations League, in a match that proved tougher to crack than expected until Artem Kontsevoy opened the scoring right on the stroke of halftime.

For 45 minutes, San Marino held on. Trofim Melnichenko rattled the crossbar from a corner, had another shot whistle just wide of the post, and Timofey Simanenka even missed a one-on-one chance. Nothing would go in. But just as the referee had already signaled the end of stoppage time, though the official scoresheet logs it at the 45th minute, the breakthrough finally came: Kontsevoy fired a right-footed shot from the center of the box, low and inside the left post, off an assist from Kirill Pechenin. Belarus went into the break with the slimmest of leads, one its play had struggled to produce until then.

The second half broke open in seven minutes

San Marino came out with a different energy after the restart and even created chances of its own: a shot from Samuele Zannoni straight at the goalkeeper, a header from Nicola Nanni well saved, and a shot from Marcello Mularoni that was also stopped. The equalizer seemed within reach. But between the 64th and 67th minutes, Belarus snuffed out any hope. First it was Artem Shumanskiy, curling a right-footed strike from outside the box into the top right corner, again assisted by Pechenin. Three minutes later, Max Ebong finished with his left foot from the center of the area, just inside the left post, on another play that started at Pechenin's feet, the author of all three assists on the night so far. The fourth goal came in the closing stretch, in the 87th minute: Kontsevoy netted his second of the night after a counterattack started by Shumanskiy, finishing into the center of the goal from the right side of the box.

The stats reflect clear, if not overwhelming, control for Belarus, which needed patience before the scoreline finally matched its superiority:

The even number of big chances, two apiece, confirms that San Marino was no mere token opponent on the night, even though it ended up paying dearly for every mistake. Our own expected goals estimate, based on the shots taken during the match, puts Belarus at 1.57 and San Marino at 1.34, figures that suggest a match far more even in terms of chance creation than the final score ended up showing.

That, in fact, is the night's most striking contrast. Beforehand, our projections pointed to an even bigger rout for Belarus, with a 96% win probability for the home side and expected goals of 4.43 for the hosts against just 0.41 for the visitors, a combined total of 4.84. The final result, 4-0, ended up matching that heavily pro-home forecast on the scoreboard, even though the path to get there was more laborious than those preseason numbers suggested: San Marino kept a clean sheet until the very end of the first half and created real chances in the second before Belarus sealed it.

What it means for the group table

With this result, Belarus moves to 4 points in the group, the product of one win, one draw and one loss in three matches played, sitting in third place. San Marino, meanwhile, remains without a point: three losses in three matches and a goal difference of -14 that leaves it bottom of the table, 4 points behind Belarus in their head-to-head standing. At the top, Finland leads with 7 points and Albania follows with 6, both idle on this matchday.

For Belarus, the match leaves the image of a night in which Pechenin was the great provider with three assists, and Kontsevoy the executioner with two goals. For San Marino, the lesson is more bitter: it competed, created clear chances, but its opponent's finishing and the fine margins at both ends once again proved costly on the scoreboard.