Aldosivi hosts Sarmiento needing points, with history stacked against them

Eight points separate Aldosivi from Sarmiento in Group B, and that gap says a lot about how each side arrives at Estadio Jose Maria Minella. The home team sits at the bottom of the two clubs with just 8 points, while the visitors sit seventh with 16. But the head-to-head record and Sarmiento's recent form complicate any attempt at a simple read on who's really in better shape.

Aldosivi has posted a record of 2 wins, 2 draws and 7 losses in 11 matches this tournament, with 12 goals scored and 17 allowed. Its last five games haven't offered much improvement: two wins and three losses, with no draws in between. Javier Sanguinetti's side has been erratic, mixing occasional wins with losses that keep it stuck near the bottom of the table.

Sarmiento, managed by Facundo Sava, has a record of 5 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses in 10 matches, with 17 goals scored and 16 allowed. Over its last five games it picked up two wins, one draw and two losses, a steadier run than its upcoming opponent's but nothing overwhelming either.

It's worth looking at a few trends from the 2026 season in this same competition, though these are separate samples that shouldn't be confused with the overall record. Playing at home, Aldosivi averages 0.38 goals scored per game and allows 0.62, with a 50% clean sheet rate in that sample of 8 matches; its most productive scoring window comes early, between minutes 0 and 15. Sarmiento, on the other hand, as a visitor in that same 8-match sample, averages 0.5 goals scored and 1.76 allowed, without a single clean sheet, and tends to score between minutes 16 and 30. Those numbers point to a game with few defensive certainties for the visiting side from Buenos Aires province.

A head-to-head record that clearly favors the Verde

The history between these two sides is lopsided: of 8 matches played, Sarmiento has won 6, there have been 2 draws, and Aldosivi hasn't taken a single one. The goal difference is wide too, 16 in favor of the Verde against just 6 for the Tiburon. It's a piece of context that carries weight, even if it won't determine what happens today at the Minella.

Probable lineups

Based on its recent matches, Aldosivi would likely line up with Lucas Acosta in goal; a back four of Joaquin Pombo, Nestor Breitenbruch, Elias Lopez and Mateo Vales; Martin Garcia, Lucas Castro and Felipe Anso in midfield; and Nicolas Gaitan, Andres Vombergar and Nicolas Cordero up top. The reliability of this projected lineup is medium.

Sarmiento, with a high-reliability projected lineup, would go with Thyago Ayala between the posts; Renzo Orihuela, Juan Insaurralde, Santiago Salle and Lucas Suarez on defense; Mauricio Martinez, Julian Mavilla, Cristian Zabala and Julian Contrera in midfield; and the forward pairing of Junior Marabel and Jonathan Herrera. Marabel, in fact, shows up as the team's top scorer in the away-form sample with 6 goals.

What the numbers say before kickoff

Our model projects this match as evenly matched, with a slight edge for the home side:

All three outcomes sit nearly even, with no clear favorite. Expected goals reflect that same balance: 1.09 for Aldosivi and 1.02 for Sarmiento, for an estimated total of 2.11. The probability of the match going over 2.5 goals is 25%, and the chance of both teams scoring drops to 14%, two figures that point toward a tight, low-scoring affair. All of this is an in-house estimate based on season trends, not a betting line or a definitive forecast.

With Aldosivi needing points to pull away from the bottom of the table and Sarmiento looking to rediscover the consistency it showed early in the tournament, the Minella has all the makings of a tight contest, just as the numbers suggest before the ball gets rolling.