Sarmiento strikes twice late to beat Aldosivi 3-1

The game started out even at José María Minella, but it ended with a late one two punch from Sarmiento that left the scoreboard reading a convincing 1-3. Aldosivi equalized early, held firm for most of the match, and then fell apart in the closing minutes, as Facundo Sava's side wrapped things up in the span of three minutes.

The home side fell behind first. In the 17th minute, Junior Marabel showed up in the middle of the box and finished with his right foot after an assist from Jhon Rentería, making it 0-1. Aldosivi answered quickly: two minutes later, Lucas Castro headed home from close range off a corner kick cross from Martín García, leveling it at 1-1. That scoreline held for the rest of the first half and a good chunk of the second.

The match stayed tight through most of the second half, with Aldosivi even creating a bit more danger, but Sarmiento had the decisive blow in reserve. In the 85th minute, Julián Mavilla capped off a counterattack set up by Jonathan Herrera, curling a left footed finish just inside the post to make it 1-2, a goal that needed a VAR review before it was confirmed. Barely three minutes later, Herrera himself struck from the center of the box with his right foot to make it 1-3, assisted by Thyago Ayala.

A game of even numbers, decided in the details

The overall stats don't reflect a gap as wide as the final score suggests. Sarmiento had a bit more possession and more big chances, but Aldosivi dominated the corner count by a wide margin and matched the visitors in total shots.

In our xG estimate based on the match's shots, Sarmiento generated 1.845 against Aldosivi's 1.116, a gap that confirms the visitors were more clinical when it came to creating real danger, though the final score ended up being even more lopsided than those numbers suggest.

The result runs counter to our pre match projections. Our model gave Aldosivi a 35% chance of winning, 33% for a draw and 32% for Sarmiento, with a combined expected goals total of 2.11. The actual outcome tilted far more clearly toward the visitors than that initial projection anticipated.

What it means in the standings

In Group B, Sarmiento sits on 19 points from 11 games played (6 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses), in the upper half of the table. Aldosivi, meanwhile, remains stuck on 8 points from 12 games played (2 wins, 2 draws and 8 losses), well off that pace. The gap between the two sides in the standings now stands at 11 points, a reflection of two campaigns heading in very different directions.

For Sarmiento, the result reaffirms the strong form the club has shown throughout the tournament. For Aldosivi, there's the frustration of having matched their opponent for most of the match only to fall by a two goal margin in the closing minutes, right when the game appeared headed toward a much tighter finish.