Argentinos Juniors heavily favored against winless Aldosivi

Argentinos Juniors sits third with 13 points while Aldosivi props up the table with just 2, a contrast that already says plenty about what to expect from this Argentina Primera Division matchup at Estadio Diego Armando Maradona. The home side averages 1.10 goals per game and concedes just 0.44; the "Tiburon" does exactly the opposite, scoring 0.38 and conceding 1.76 per match. Rarely does a matchday fixture come in with the numbers already this lopsided.

El Bicho arrives in good spirits, though not quite at its recent peak: of the last five matches, it won three, lost one and drew the most recent one. So far this tournament it has racked up four wins, one draw and just a single loss in six outings, with 10 goals scored and only 6 allowed, while keeping a clean sheet in 67% of its matches. Its goals tend to arrive between the 61st and 75th minutes, and the scoring load is shared: Tomas Molina has 3 goals, while Hernan Lopez and Nicolas Oroz have 2 apiece.

Aldosivi is going through the opposite stretch. It hasn't won any of its last five matches (four losses and a draw), and the season-long numbers are even tougher: winless in six matchdays, with two draws and four defeats, just 4 goals scored against 9 allowed. A clean sheet doesn't even show up in its stats, a flat 0% that confirms the club's defensive struggles. Its top scoring threat is Federico Gino, with 2 goals, and the team tends to find the net early, between the 16th and 30th minutes.

The group B standings underline the gap: Argentinos leads the section with 13 points through six matches, while Aldosivi sits at the bottom with 2 points in the same number of games. The gap between the two in the table is 11 points, a considerable distance at this stage of the tournament.

The head-to-head record isn't encouraging for the visitors either: of the 8 matches played, Argentinos has won 6, Aldosivi just 2, with no draws. The combined scoring, 12 goals for the home side against 6 for the visitors, lines up with what this season's numbers are showing.

Probable lineups

For the home side, the projected lineup (medium reliability) would keep Brayan Cortes in goal, a back line with Francisco Alvarez, Kevin Coronel, Sebastian Prieto and Franco Vazquez, a midfield of Nicolas Oroz, Kevin Gutierrez and Alan Lescano, and up top the attacking duo of Tomas Molina, Hernan Lopez and Gaston Veron.

Aldosivi, with a projected lineup of low reliability, would likely field Lucas Acosta between the posts, a back four of Joaquin Pombo, Nestor Breitenbruch, Elias Lopez and Leonardo Sigali, a midfield of Nicolas Zalazar, Andres Vombergar, Matias Godoy, Lucas Castro and Alan Sosa, with Nicolas Cordero leading the line.

What the odds say

EnPelotas' proprietary model tabs Argentinos Juniors as a heavy favorite, though it doesn't fully rule out visitor resistance:

Expected goals back up that read: 1.62 for the home side against 0.54 for the visitors, an estimated total of 2.16 goals in the match. Worth noting, this is an in-house estimate based on the season's trends, not a closed forecast or a betting line. The additional trends don't point to a blowout either: just a 24% chance the match goes over 2.5 goals and a 29% chance both teams score.

With those numbers on the table, Argentinos Juniors arrives as the clear favorite to keep its strong start to the tournament going, while Aldosivi needs to turn around a run of form that, for now, isn't giving it any breathing room.