Arsenal look like favorites again after routing Coventry, as City, United, Villa and Liverpool stumble in Matchday 1

One Premier League matchday doesn't tell the whole story, but it doesn't lie completely either. Last season, an early set-piece goal was enough for Arsenal to win 1-0 at Old Trafford, and that turned out to be a fairly accurate preview of what followed: the title for the Gunners and a United side far more competitive than expected. Newly promoted Sunderland thrashed West Ham 3-0 and went on to finish well up the table while the Hammers dropped into the Championship. Sometimes the opening game really does tell you something.

Other times it lies through its teeth. A Liverpool side coming off the title beat Bournemouth 4-2 looking every bit unstoppable, then finished fifth. Tottenham hammered in three goals to open Thomas Frank's tenure and wound up just two points above the relegation zone, with Frank himself sacked at midseason. Aston Villa drew at home while managing just three shots and still finished fourth. With all that history in mind, it's time to do what everyone does every year: overreact to Matchday 1 of 2026-27, fully aware that most of these certainties will fall apart on their own.

Arsenal are the favorites again

The Gunners opened their title defense by scoring three goals and conceding just four shots. Christos Tzolis, the low-key summer signing, started on the left without a hint of doubt from the manager. Bukayo Saka and Declan Rice, both carrying recent injury histories, looked fully fit. Kai Havertz started and scored. And the Saka-Odegaard-White triangle produced the kind of possession-based fluidity Arsenal hasn't shown since 2023-24. The opponent, Coventry City, may not have been much of a test, but Arsenal showed identity, squad depth and quality players who didn't even make it onto the field.

Meanwhile, the rest of the top five had a matchday to forget. Enzo Maresca's Manchester City were trailing until the 84th minute against a Bournemouth side without a permanent summer manager, with Marc Guehi filling in as an improvised midfielder. United fell 2-0 to Hull City. Villa lost 4-0 to Brighton. And Liverpool needed an Alisson save and a Dominik Szoboszlai penalty in the 99th minute to salvage a draw against a Newcastle side stripped of its stars.

Brighton, Villa and Tottenham: the three bets already starting to pay off

Before the season kicked off, Brighton were tipped as the team with better title chances than the bookmakers were pricing in: a young squad, Fabian Hurzeler as the league's youngest manager, and the sixth-best adjusted goal difference of last season. Winning 4-0 by halftime against a team that finished in last season's top four doesn't rewrite a whole campaign, but it does reinforce the case.

Aston Villa, on the other hand, showed exactly what everyone feared: Champions League fatigue, major departures in the transfer market (Ezri Konsa moved to Arsenal, Ollie Watkins wasn't even named in the squad) and a run of luck that has clearly dried up. Joao Gomes' red card matched the club's total for red cards across the whole of last season, and Victor Lindelof's own goal was exactly the kind of play that used to fall Villa's opponents' way, not theirs.

Tottenham, who finished 17th in each of the last two campaigns, spent big in the market but lost the shot count 26-9 to Brentford despite holding 59 percent possession. The same numbers that led some to tip them for a top-four finish are now the ones raising the most doubts.

Brentford, the awkward customer once again

Brentford once again showed why they're one of the most consistent sides in England: they generate the league's highest-quality chances and concede the lowest-quality ones. This summer they broke from their usual pattern with a 48 million euro signing of midfielder Mamadou Sangare from Lens, a profile that until now hadn't fit their data-driven scouting model. Against Tottenham he was, without question, the best player on the field, and his involvement in the buildup to the opening goal suggests this gamble could pay off in full.