Atalanta hosts a struggling Parma with history and numbers on its side

Atalanta and Parma are not meeting at just any point on the table: the 12th-place side hosts the 18th-place side at the New Balance Arena, and the six-point gap between them in the standings says a lot about how each team arrives at this round of Serie A.

Maurizio Sarri's side has 11 points from nine matches (3 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses), with 16 goals scored and 17 conceded, a tight margin that leaves them in the lower-middle of the table. Over their last five matches they've picked up one win, two draws and two losses, an uneven run that mixes points with stumbles. Parma, for its part, is going through a tougher stretch: just 5 points from nine outings, with only 1 win, 2 draws and 6 losses, and a goal difference of 5 scored against 15 conceded. In their last five matches they won one, drew one and lost three, a run that keeps them parked in 18th place.

Looking only at Atalanta's performance at home so far this Serie A season (a sample of five matches), they're averaging 2.196 goals scored and 1.602 conceded per game, with 20% of matches ending in a clean sheet and a tendency to score early, within the first 15 minutes. Nikola Krstovic stands out as the top scorer in that sample, with 6 goals. On Parma's side, the away record (four matches) looks rougher: just 0.495 goals scored per game against 2.25 conceded, with no clean sheets, though with a slight tendency to score late, between the 76th and 90th minutes. Simone Lontani and David Romero share the offensive load there, with 2 goals apiece.

A head-to-head record that favors the home side

The history between the two clubs doesn't suggest a surprise is likely either: in 8 meetings, Atalanta has won 6, there's been 1 draw, and Parma has won just once, with a combined 25 goals for the home side against just 8 for the visitors.

Probable lineups

With the caveat that this is an estimated lineup and not a confirmed one, Sarri would likely stick with much of his usual setup: Marco Carnesecchi in goal, a back line of Thomas Kristensen, Davide Zappacosta, Raoul Bellanova, Relja Obric and Lorenzo Bernasconi, a midfield of Eljif Elmas, Éderson, Charles De Ketelaere and Gianluca Gaetano, and Nikola Krstovic leading the attack.

Parma, also in projected form, would field Edoardo Corvi in goal, a back line of Mariano Troilo, Enrico Delprato, Diego Carlos, Emanuele Valeri and Dominik Drobnic, a midfield of Mandela Keita, Vincent Sierro and Sascha Britschgi, and an attacking pair of El Bilal Touré and David Romero.

What the numbers say before kickoff

Our model gives a clear edge to Atalanta, though it doesn't completely rule out a surprise or a draw:

This is our own estimate drawn from the season's trends, not a betting line or a definitive prediction. The expected goals figures back up that reading: 1.81 for Atalanta compared to 0.61 for Parma, a combined total of 2.42. On top of that, the model puts the probability of the match going over 2.5 goals at 78%, and the chance of both teams scoring at 50%.

With Atalanta looking to shake off its recent inconsistency at home and Parma trying to halt a slide that has it stuck near the bottom of the table, the match at the New Balance Arena promises plenty of movement on the scoreboard before this round of Serie A wraps up.