Atalanta holds off Sassuolo rally as Krstovic's late strike needs VAR review

Raspadori needed just five minutes to make it 1-0, and with a start like that, you might have expected a quiet afternoon for Atalanta. Far from it: Sassuolo equalized in the second half and forced the home side to settle the match with a goal from Krstovic that had to go through VAR before it counted. In the end, it finished 2-1 for Atalanta at the New Balance Arena, in Serie A play.

The opening goal was textbook stuff: Gianluca Gaetano slipped in the pass and Giacomo Raspadori finished with his left foot from inside the box to put the hosts ahead just moments into the game. Sassuolo, far from retreating, answered with persistence. Kieron Bowie clipped the crossbar in the 9th minute, and between the 24th and 41st minutes the visitors strung together a string of shots (Bakola, Adzic, Laurienté, Doig) that either missed the target or ran into the home goalkeeper. Atalanta had its own chances before the break too: Zappacosta rattled the crossbar in the 24th minute, and Gaetano forced a good save low down in stoppage time. With all that, the first half ended 1-0.

The second half opened with an equalizer in the air, and it arrived in the 54th minute: Cas Odenthal rose for a close-range header to make it 1-1 and put Atalanta in trouble. The game opened up even further from there, and that's when the substitutions came in: Nikola Krstovic entered in the 59th minute for Scamacca, along with De Ketelaere and Samardzic, and just five minutes after coming on he scored what turned out to be the winner. It came in the 64th minute, a right-footed strike from the center of the box that needed VAR confirmation before it stood as the final 2-1. Sassuolo kept pushing until the end with Thorstvedt, Domínguez and several shots from outside the box, but couldn't threaten Atalanta's goal with the same clarity again.

What the numbers say

The stats tell a more even story than the scoreline suggests. Sassuolo led in shots and generated more offensive volume overall, while Atalanta controlled possession and made the most of the little it had at the key moments.

The xG calculated after the fact from the match's shots backs up that reading: 0.885 for Atalanta against 2.833 for Sassuolo. It's our own estimate, not a prediction, but it makes clear that the visitors created the clearer chances and that Atalanta took home all three points with less than that.

That's quite a contrast with what was projected before kickoff, where we gave Atalanta a 60% chance of winning, 24% for a draw, and just 16% for Sassuolo, with expected goals of 1.9 for the home side and 0.89 for the visitors. The result ended up matching the favorite's tag, but the way the game played out, with Sassuolo generating nearly three expected goals, was considerably more even than that preview suggested.

What the match leaves behind

With this result, Atalanta reaches 3 points from a single match played, in a Serie A start where several teams share that same tally. Sassuolo, meanwhile, is left without points after this defeat, adding to a tough start to the tournament. The points gap between the two sides in the table stands at 3, a tight margin that the match itself, with Sassuolo generating more than expected, makes plain to see.