Athletic Club Withstands Real Sociedad's Dominance, Wins 2-1 at San Mames

San Mames rose to its feet in the 13th minute and didn't stop roaring until halftime. Athletic Club edged Real Sociedad 2-1 in a match that was effectively decided in just 33 minutes of football, all of it before the break, handing Edin Terzic's side a win that carries more weight than the final score suggests.

The story was written early. In the 13th minute, Inaki Williams finished with his right foot from the center of the box to make it 1-0, after a through ball from Nico Williams split the txuri-urdin defense in two. Real Sociedad, though, answered quickly: in the 29th minute, Luka Sucic unleashed a left-footed strike from outside the box that slipped in on the right side of Unai Simon's goal to make it 1-1, a blow that seemed to restore the balance the match had started with.

But the closing stretch of the first half still had one more twist in store. In stoppage time, in the 44th minute, Nico Williams went down inside the box after a foul by Jon Aramburu, and the referee pointed to the spot. At the start of the second half, in the 46th minute (as the clock carried over through first-half stoppage time), Alex Berenguer made no mistake from twelve yards, slotting a low shot down the middle to make it 2-1, the score Athletic took into the break and the one that would hold up until the final whistle.

A dominance the scoreboard didn't reflect

The curious thing is that, past the midpoint of the match, it was Real Sociedad that took control. The San Sebastian side finished with 62% possession to Athletic's 38%, and generated more volume: 14 shots to the home side's 13, and 5 shots on target to 3. They also led in corners, 8 to 5, and in ball circulation, with 597 passes compared to Athletic's 366.

Still, Athletic did more damage with less. According to our own expected goals estimate, calculated from the match's shots, the home side generated 3.35 expected goals compared to Real Sociedad's 1.50, a gap that does reflect what happened inside the boxes: Athletic had 3 big chances to the visitors' 2, and made the most of them in the moments that mattered.

Real Sociedad pushed in the second half, with shots from Carlos Soler, Goncalo Guedes and, once Takefusa Kubo entered after the 74th minute substitution, from Beñat Turrientes late on as well. But none found the net, and Athletic, leaning on the work of Nico Williams and Robert Navarro out wide, managed the lead through to the final whistle.

What we projected versus what happened

Before kickoff, our projection gave Athletic a 37% chance of winning, 27% for a draw and 36% for a Real Sociedad win, with expected goals of 1.49 for each side. The result fell within the range of what was foreseen, but the distribution of chances did not: Athletic, which had come in as the most evenly matched side in the forecast, ended up generating more than double the estimated goal threat of its rival, despite holding less than half the possession.

In the standings, the win moves Athletic Club up to 7th place with 15 points, while Real Sociedad stays 5th with 19, a four-point gap between the two sides. For Pellegrino Matarazzo's team, the stumble at San Mames snaps a good recent run and leaves mixed feelings: they controlled the ball but couldn't translate it into the moments the scoreboard demanded. For Athletic, two goals were enough to take all three points in a match where, by the numbers, they weren't the ones controlling the game, but they were the sharpest when it counted.