Atlanta United and Toronto FC meet in MLS with an even history and no clear favorite

Atlanta United comes into this matchup with just one win in its last five games, with four losses over that same stretch. Mercedes-Benz Stadium welcomes a Toronto FC side heading in the opposite direction: three wins and a draw in its last five, with a single loss mixed in. The game is part of MLS play and pits two teams from the lower half of the Eastern Conference against each other, separated by just 9 points in the standings.

The gap in the standings, though, doesn't tell the whole story. Atlanta sits 14th with a record of 8 wins, 6 draws and 18 losses in 32 games played, scoring 40 goals and allowing 56. Toronto FC is a step above, in 11th place, with 9 wins, 12 draws and 11 losses, 50 goals scored and 60 allowed over the same number of matches. Neither club is fighting for anything higher up the table at this point in the season.

Playing at home in MLS this season, Atlanta has averaged 1.44 goals scored and 2 allowed per game across a sample of 16 matches, keeping a clean sheet in just 6% of those games. The stretch in which it has struggled most to score is, according to that same sample, between the 61st and 75th minutes. On the road, Toronto FC has averaged 0.939 goals scored and 1.792 allowed in 15 away games, going scoreless against in 27% of those matches, with its best offensive stretch coming late, between the 76th and 90th minutes. These are context numbers from a different sample, but they help paint a picture of each team's profile home and away.

As for the top scorers from that same home/away sample, Atlanta has split production between Aleksey Miranchuk and Miguel Almiron, with 6 goals apiece, and Tristan Muyumba with 4. For Toronto FC, Josh Sargent and Daniel Sallói stand out with 9 goals each, along with Emilio Aristizabal with 4.

What the History Shows

Between the two sides there have been 8 meetings, with 3 wins for Atlanta United, 4 draws and one win for Toronto FC. In terms of goals, Atlanta has scored 12 and Toronto 10 across those matches. It's an even history, with no clear dominant side.

Projected Lineups

For Atlanta United, the projected lineup (of medium reliability, based on recent matches) would have Lucas Hoyos in goal, with Junior Alonso, Tomas Jacob, Elias Baez and Paulo Diaz across the back line. The midfield would feature Giuliano Galoppo, Mauricio Amaro, Miguel Almiron, Tristan Muyumba and Aleksey Miranchuk, with Breel Embolo leading the attack.

Toronto FC, also projected, would line up with Luka Gavran in net; Matheus Pereira, Benjamin Kuscevic, Nicksoen Gomis, Richie Laryea and Zane Monlouis across the back; Niklas Dorsch and Jonathan Osorio in midfield, and a front three of Theo Corbeanu, Josh Sargent and Daniel Sallói.

Match Probabilities

Our model doesn't see a clear favorite: Atlanta United gets a slight edge from home field advantage, but the gap with Toronto FC is minimal and the draw carries real weight in the equation. This estimate is our own, based on the season's trends, and shouldn't be taken as a betting line. Along those same lines, our model projects expected goals of 1.53 for Atlanta and 1.43 for Toronto, for an estimated total of 2.96. The trends back up that reading: a 71% probability the match goes over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance both teams score.

With both defenses leaving gaps all season long, the numbers point to an open game, with chances for both sides. It remains to be seen whether either team can hold a lead until the final whistle.