Atlanta United hosts Chicago Fire with the model tilted toward the visitors

Atlanta United sits second to last in the Eastern Conference with just 30 points, while Chicago Fire FC finds itself in a high position, fourth, only 18 points behind leader Nashville SC. On paper this is a matchup between a team that needs to turn things around and another that wants to keep pushing at the top, and that shows in how both sides arrive at Mercedes-Benz Stadium for this MLS fixture.

The home side, coached by Gerardo Martino, carries a record of 8 wins, 6 draws and 16 losses so far this season, with 37 goals scored and 51 allowed: the worst goal differential among the top half of the table, just barely ahead of CF Montreal. Over its last five matches it has posted two wins, one draw and two losses, not quite enough to call it a real turnaround. Chicago, for its part, has 14 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses, with 52 goals scored and 44 allowed, a notably stronger record. That said, in its last five matches it strung together three straight wins before dropping the two most recent ones, so it isn't exactly riding a hot streak either.

A couple of context numbers are worth separating from the overall standings: playing at home this MLS season, across a sample of 15 matches, Atlanta averages 1.4 goals scored and 1.94 allowed, with clean sheets in just 7% of those games, and its most productive scoring stretch falls between minutes 61 and 75. Miguel Almiron and Aleksey Miranchuk share the top scoring spot in that sample with 6 goals each. On Chicago's side, playing on the road across those same 15 MLS matches this season, the average is 1.6 goals scored and 1.66 allowed, with 20% of games without conceding and the same effective window, between minutes 61 and 75. Maren Haile-Selassie leads that sample with 11 goals, followed by Robert Lewandowski and Philip Zinckernagel with 6 each.

The head-to-head record between the two sides doesn't point to a clear trend either: in 8 matches, Atlanta has won 2, Chicago has won 2 and there have been 4 draws, with 11 goals for the home side and 9 for the visitors across that span.

Possible lineups

As a projected lineup, with medium reliability based on recent matches, Atlanta United could start Lucas Hoyos in goal; a back line of Elias Baez, Tomas Jacob, Junior Alonso and Paulo Diaz; Mauricio Amaro, Giuliano Galoppo and Tristan Muyumba in midfield; and an attacking trio of Breel Embolo, Miguel Almiron and Aleksey Miranchuk.

Chicago Fire FC, also on a likely basis, could field Chris Brady in goal; a back line with Mbekezeli Mbokazi, Jack Elliott, Jonathan Dean and Leonardo Barroso; a crowded midfield with Maren Haile-Selassie, Dje D'Avilla, Jonathan Bamba, Philip Zinckernagel and Anton Saletros; and Robert Lewandowski as the focal point up front.

What the numbers say

Our model gives Chicago Fire FC a 46% chance of winning, while Atlanta United sits at 28% and the draw comes in at 26%. Those figures point to a modest edge for the visitors, but nothing close to overwhelming: the draw remains very much in play.

That estimate lines up with two other readings from the model: a 73% chance the match goes over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance both teams find the net. All of this is our own projection, not a betting line or a guaranteed outcome.

With Atlanta needing points to pull away from the bottom of the table and Chicago looking to keep pace near the top of the Eastern Conference, the match at Mercedes-Benz Stadium has the makings of a high-scoring affair, even if, according to the numbers, the result is far from decided beforehand.