Revolution scores once and holds off dominant Chicago Fire for 1-0 win

It only took one shot on target, and a well placed one at that, for the New England Revolution to pick up all three points at Gillette Stadium. Matt Polster finished with his right foot from the center of the box in the 25th minute, off a pass from Carles Gil, and that turned out to be the only time all night the ball crossed the line. The final score read 1-0, and Chicago Fire FC left empty handed despite being, by a wide margin, the team that pushed hardest.

If this match left one clear takeaway, it's the gap between the scoreline and what actually happened on the field. Chicago Fire controlled possession, created chance after chance and spent much of the game camped in the opponent's half, especially in the second half. Still, New England's early goal let the Revolution play with the lead and weather the pressure that came mostly through Philip Zinckernagel and Robert Lewandowski.

How it was decided

The first half opened at a choppy pace, with fouls flying from the opening minute, but it also produced clear chances for both sides. Dor Turgeman tested the keeper early from outside the box, and Peyton Miller troubled the defense with a shot that drifted just wide of the right post. Chicago Fire also had its moments before the goal, including a shot from Leonardo Barroso that sailed high and wide to the left. But it was the Revolution who struck first: on a quick counterattack, Carles Gil set up Polster, who slotted it low past the keeper and inside the left post to make it 1-0.

After the break, Chicago Fire came out with a different intensity. Moments into the second half, Lewandowski fired a point blank shot that was blocked, and from there came a string of corners and attempts: Anton Salétros, Mbekezeli Mbokazi, a header from Andreas Hanche-Olsen, Jonathan Bamba, all tried their luck in the span of just a few minutes without finding the equalizer. New England, for its part, had a good look through Peyton Miller that was well saved right under the crossbar. In the closing stretch, Chicago's pressure intensified with Zinckernagel as the main source of danger, but neither his shot off the crossbar nor Lewandowski's header that grazed the bar in stoppage time was enough to change the outcome.

By the numbers

The stats confirm what was visible on the field: Chicago Fire was far superior in terms of volume of play, but lacked the finishing touch.

That gap also shows up in the xG generated during the match, an in-house estimate based on shot location: 0.268 for New England Revolution against 1.073 for Chicago Fire. The numbers back up the sense that the visitors deserved at least something out of the match, though their lack of finishing ended up tipping the scales the other way.

The result also stands in contrast to our pre-match projection: our model gave the New England Revolution a 37% chance of winning, Chicago Fire 38% and a draw 25%, with a projected total of 3.44 goals. The match fell well short of that figure, with just one goal scored overall, and the team given the slimmer odds in that projection was the one that walked away with all three points.

What it means

With this result, the New England Revolution stays in third place in the East group with 52 points, while Chicago Fire FC sits fourth with 48, a gap of 4 points between the two sides. Neither team's standing shifted dramatically, but for the Revolution this is a valuable win earned almost against the run of play, while Chicago Fire leaves with the feeling of having created more than enough to have taken something more from the match.