Chicago Fire Host New England Revolution at Soldier Field as Slight Favorites, but Visitors Can't Be Ruled Out

Chicago Fire FC arrives at Soldier Field with just 39 points and the feeling of having stalled: four draws in its last five MLS matches, without a win in that stretch. Standing across from them will be the New England Revolution, traveling with more spark (three wins in their last five) and sitting just one point above Chicago in the standings. The gap between the two sides in the table is only 1 point, so this matchup matters above all for pride and for positioning in the Eastern Conference.

The Fire's record in the tournament stands at 11 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses in 23 matches, with 44 goals scored and 33 allowed, placing them fourth in the Eastern group. The Revolution, having played one more match (24), have racked up 12 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses, with 39 goals scored and 30 allowed, sitting in third place. The numbers are similar, with Chicago somewhat steadier in how it splits points (more draws, fewer losses) and New England more inconsistent but riding a stronger recent run.

It's worth not conflating this with other data: playing at home in MLS this season (across a sample of 11 matches), the Fire average 1.903 goals scored and 1.087 allowed per match, with 36% of their games finishing without conceding, and their strongest scoring window falling between minutes 76 and 90. The Revolution, in their away matches (a sample of 12 games), score 1.42 goals per match but concede 1.58, with just 8% of games ending in clean sheets, and they also tend to show up more in the final stretch of matches. These are contextual trends, not this tournament's actual performance data, but they help explain why the model expects a match with goals.

The head-to-head record between the two sides, across 8 matches played, slightly favors the Fire: 2 home wins, 5 draws and just 1 away win, with Chicago scoring 15 goals to New England's 13 across that set of matches.

Probable Lineups

Chicago Fire FC could take the field with Chris Brady in goal, a back line of Andrew Gutman, Jonathan Dean, Jack Elliott and Sam Rogers, and a midfield featuring Philip Zinckernagel, Anton Saletros, Dje D'Avilla and Maren Haile-Selassie, the latter the top home scorer in the trends sample with 7 goals. Up top, Robert Lewandowski (6 goals in that same sample) and Robin Lod.

New England Revolution, for their part, project with Matt Turner in goal, a back line of Matt Polster, Mamadou Fofana, Will Sands and Ethan Kohler, and a midfield of Carles Gil (10 goals in his trends sample), Alhassan Yusuf and Brooklyn Raines. Up front, Jack Harrison, Peyton Miller and Dor Turgeman. In both cases, these are lineups projected from recent matches, not official confirmations.

What the Numbers Say

Our model, built on this season's trends, gives the Fire a moderate edge for playing at home, but doesn't rule out the Revolution: combined, a draw or an away win account for 47%, nearly half the possible outcomes. The expected goals we project are 2.09 for the home side and 1.39 for the visitors, a combined total of 3.48, and the broader trends point in the same direction: a 74% probability of more than 2.5 goals and an 83% chance both teams find the net. It's worth clarifying this is our own projection, not a betting line.

With those numbers on the table, everything points to an open match at Soldier Field, with the Fire looking to snap their winless streak and the Revolution looking to build on their strong current form in MLS.