Atlanta United and FC Cincinnati Look to Turn the Tide in MLS Clash of Shaky Defenses

Mercedes-Benz Stadium hosts a matchup between two teams that need points to stop looking over their shoulders in the Eastern Conference. Atlanta United and FC Cincinnati meet in MLS separated by just six points in the standings, and while neither team's position invites much optimism, there's still a full season to play.

Atlanta sits 14th in the East, with a record of 7 wins, 6 draws and 14 losses in 27 matches, 32 goals scored and 45 allowed. That minus-13 goal differential paints the picture of a team that struggles defensively. Over its last five matches, Atlanta has three draws, one win and one loss: not winning consistently, but not falling apart either. Cincinnati, meanwhile, sits just three spots ahead in 10th, with 8 wins, 9 draws and 9 losses in 26 games, 55 goals scored and 64 allowed. Its form is more worrying: no wins in the last five matches, with three losses and two draws.

It's worth looking at some season trends too, though without mixing them in with the overall tournament record. At home, Atlanta averages 1.454 goals scored and 1.765 allowed per match across a sample of 13 games, with clean sheets in just 8% of those and its best scoring stretch between the 61st and 75th minutes. Cincinnati, on the road, scores 1.504 goals per game over 14 matches but concedes an alarming 2.86 on average, failing to keep a clean sheet in any of those games; its strongest attacking window comes between the 76th and 90th minutes. These numbers point to two defenses in trouble, which lines up with what the expected goals projection suggests for this match.

In head-to-head meetings, the history clearly favors the visitors: of 8 matches, Cincinnati won 4, Atlanta only 1, with 3 draws, and 15 goals for the Ohio club against 12 for Atlanta.

Probable Lineups

Gerardo Martino could stick with much of his recent starting group, with Lucas Hoyos in goal and a back line of Tomás Jacob, Elías Báez, Júnior Alonso and Paulo Díaz. In midfield, Tristan Muyumba, Miguel Almirón and Aleksey Miranchuk figure to start, the latter the team's top scorer at home in the sample with 6 goals, lining up alongside Breel Embolo and Cooper Sanchez up top. This lineup is drawn from recent matches and carries medium reliability.

For Cincinnati, Pat Noonan is expected to go with Roman Celentano in goal and a defense featuring Samuel Gidi, Miles Robinson and Nick Hagglund. The midfield looks stacked: Gerardo Valenzuela, Kenji Mboma Dem, Evander, Obinna Nwobodo, Ender Echenique and Pavel Bucha, with Kévin Denkey as the attacking focal point. Denkey and Evander are, in fact, the team's top two scorers on the road with 14 and 13 goals respectively. This probable lineup carries high reliability.

What Do the Numbers Say?

Our model projects an even match, with a slight lean toward the visitors.

Expected goals back up that read: 1.73 for Atlanta and 1.86 for Cincinnati, a combined 3.59 that points to an open contest. In fact, the calculated trends show a 78% probability of more than 2.5 goals and a 60% chance both teams will score. As always, this is our own projection, not a betting line.

With both teams needing a turnaround and two defenses that can't quite shut the door, it's likely there will be no shortage of scoring chances at either end in Atlanta.