Atlante and Pachuca chase urgency at Banorte, with the visitors as favorites

Estadio Banorte hosts a duel of the desperate in Liga MX: Atlante, fourteenth with 7 points, and Pachuca, eleventh with 8, are separated by just one point in the standings and both arrive needing to snap out of inconsistent form. There's nothing lofty at stake at the top of the table, but there is a real need to collect points before the relegation zone creeps closer.

Atlante has posted a record of 1 win, 4 draws and 2 losses in its 7 matches this tournament, with 7 goals scored and 9 allowed. Those numbers explain all the draws: the club hasn't won in its last five outings, with three draws and two losses in that stretch. At home, and looking only at the three matches it has played in that condition this season in Liga MX, Atlante averages 0.677 goals scored and 0.677 allowed per game, keeping a clean sheet in 33 percent of those matches; its most productive scoring window at home falls between the 61st and 75th minutes. Eugenio Pizzuto and Martín Sarrafiore stand out as its top scorers in that sample, with two goals apiece.

Pachuca, for its part, has 2 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses in the tournament, with 10 goals scored and 8 allowed. Over the last five matches, the picture improved: two wins, two draws and one loss, with a victory to close out that run. On the road, and across the four matches it has played away this season in Liga MX, Pachuca averages 1.505 goals scored and just 0.508 allowed per game, keeping a clean sheet in half of those outings. Its best scoring stretch in that sample comes between the 76th and 90th minutes. Salomón Rondón is by far its most dangerous name: seven goals in those four matches on the road.

The head to head record between the two clubs doesn't point to a clear trend either: in 8 previous meetings, Atlante has 3 wins, there have been 2 draws and Pachuca has 3 wins, with the home side scoring 8 goals combined against 10 for the visitors.

Probable lineups

With medium reliability, Atlante's projected lineup would keep Óscar Jiménez in goal, with Walter Portales, Aaron Quirós, Eduardo Tercero and a back line rounded out by some combination of Nico Carrera, Edgar Jiménez and Cristóbal Alfaro. Eugenio Pizzuto and Luis Calzadilla would operate in midfield, while Jhojan Julio and Luis Puente would form the attacking duo.

Pachuca, also projected with medium reliability, would keep Carlos Moreno between the posts, with Eduardo Bauermann, Sergio Barreto, Carlos Sánchez and Francisco Venegas across the back. Kenedy, Oussama Idrissi, Elías Montiel and either Christian Rivera or Alán Bautista would round out the midfield, with Salomón Rondón leading the line up front.

What the model says

Our own projection, based on this season's trends, points to a tight match with a slight lean toward the visitors:

A draw plus an Atlante win together outweigh a Pachuca win on its own, so there's no overwhelming favorite here: the 41% for the Hidalgo side is the single most likely outcome, but it's far from a sure thing. Expected goals back up that even reading: 1.01 for Atlante and 1.28 for Pachuca, a combined total of 2.29 that doesn't point to an offensive showcase, which lines up with the 13% our model assigns to the match going over 2.5 goals. The probability of both teams scoring sits at 50 percent. It's worth noting these figures are our own estimate, not a betting line.

With Atlante desperate to snap its winless run and a Pachuca side arriving with better recent form and Rondón as its biggest weapon, the match at Banorte figures to be decided more by fine margins than by any gap in class.