Pachuca Routs Atlante 3-0 at Estadio Banorte

It took Pachuca just 37 minutes to put the game away at Estadio Banorte. A Salomon Rondon free kick, a rocket from outside the box by Kenedy, and a left-footed finish into the top corner by Oussama Idrissi on the counterattack left the score at a resounding 0-3 before the first half even wound down. The second half, with substitutions rolling through, did nothing to change the outcome.

The first blow landed in the 12th minute: Rondon curled a direct free kick with his right foot inside the right post of Atlante's goal. Not even seven minutes later, Kenedy struck from outside the box, finishing left-footed into the top left corner to make it 0-2. And to cap off a nightmare first half for the home side, the third goal arrived in the 37th minute: a well-executed counterattack ended with an assist from Rodolfo Pizarro, who had come on minutes earlier for an injured Kenedy, setting up Idrissi to finish right-footed into the top corner, this time on the right side.

The odd thing is that Atlante was no passive bystander. Before the first goal, Eduardo Bauermann had already rattled the post with a shot, and throughout the match the home side generated more offensive volume than its opponent: Atlante finished with 32 shots to Pachuca's 21, and held the edge in possession and passing. The problem was accuracy: only 5 of those shots were on target, compared to 8 for Pachuca, who was far more clinical with the little it had.

The numbers behind the scoreline

In fact, our expected goals estimate based on the match's shots comes out nearly even: 1.815 for Atlante against 1.711 for Pachuca. In other words, in terms of chances created the match was far more even than the scoreline suggests: what decided it was the visitors' efficiency in the three moments they had near the opposing goal.

Beforehand, our model had projected a tight match, with a 27% chance of a home win, 32% for a draw and 41% for Pachuca, with expected goals of 1.01 for Atlante and 1.28 for the visitors. The favorite was correctly identified, but the actual margin ended up far wider than that projection anticipated: nobody expected a 0-3 scoreline with the game already decided by halftime.

The second half was, for the most part, a formality. Atlante tried to respond with several substitutions (Daniel Gonzalez, Luis Puente and Nico Carrera came on at the start of the half, followed later by Jairon Charcopa and Armando Escobar) and created chances through Martin Sarrafiore and Luis Puente, but ran into shot after shot that sailed wide or was blocked. Pachuca, with Rondon and Oussama Idrissi also withdrawn for substitutes, managed the lead without any scares.

What it means in the standings

In the Liga MX table, the result leaves both teams in uncomfortable spots. Pachuca climbs to 11 points from 8 matches played (3 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses), while Atlante sits on 7 points from the same number of matches (1 win, 4 draws and 3 losses), with a goal difference that has now turned negative. The two sides are separated by 4 points, a gap this result only helped widen.

For Atlante, there's the frustration of a match in which it controlled possession and produced more shots, yet paid dearly for every individual mistake. For Pachuca, the efficiency of Rondon, Kenedy and Idrissi was enough to take all three points without needing to dominate the run of play.