Atlante hosts a red-hot Santos Laguna, with history and the standings working against them

Atlante sits at the bottom of the Liga MX table with 14 points and enters this matchup having dropped four of its last five games, with just one win mixed in during that stretch. Standing across from them will be Santos Laguna, coming off the complete opposite run: four wins in its last five outings. The match will be played at Estadio Banorte in Liga MX action, pitting two teams against each other that need the points for very different reasons.

So far this tournament, Atlante has posted a record of 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 losses in 15 matches, with 16 goals scored and 24 allowed, numbers that have it sitting 16th in the standings. Santos Laguna, meanwhile, has racked up 7 wins, 1 draw and 7 losses in the same number of games, with 21 goals scored and 20 conceded, putting it in 8th place. The gap between the two sides in the table stands at 8 points.

There are a couple of context numbers worth examining closely, since they reflect smaller 2026 season samples rather than the tournament as a whole. Playing at home, Atlante averages 1.007 goals scored and 1.436 allowed per match across seven games, with clean sheets in just 14% of those matches, and tends to score most often between the 61st and 75th minutes. Santos Laguna, on the other hand, as a visitor in that same seven-game sample, averages 1.436 goals scored and 2.421 allowed, without a single shutout, and its most common scoring window falls between the 31st and 45th minutes. These are specific trends, not a reflection of what each team has done in this tournament, but they do offer a hint of which way the match could tilt.

The head-to-head record doesn't help Atlante either: of the 7 matches played between the two sides, Santos Laguna has won 6, there has been 1 draw, and the Potros de Hierro haven't taken a single one, with an aggregate score of 17 goals for Santos Laguna against just 7 for Atlante.

The probable lineups

Miguel Herrera, in charge of Atlante, would stick with much of the group that has started the last six matches: Óscar Jiménez in goal, a back four of Luis Calzadilla, Aaron Quirós, Walter Portales and Nico Carrera, with Eduardo Tercero as a fifth defender, Eugenio Pizzuto and Martín Sarrafiore in midfield, and Jhojan Julio alongside Luis Puente up top. This is a projected lineup with high reliability, based on the team's recent consistency.

On the Santos Laguna side, Renato Paiva would count on Carlos Acevedo between the posts, a back line made up of Felipe Sánchez, Mauricio Cuevas, Franco Pardo, Diego González and Efraín Orona, a midfield featuring Ezequiel Bullaude, Facundo Cáseres, Fran Villalba and Eduardo Aguirre, and Tahiel Jiménez as the attacking reference. In this case the reliability of the projection is medium, given the rotation the team has shown in its recent matches.

What the numbers say before kickoff

Our model projects a tight match, with a slight edge for the home side by virtue of playing at home:

These are very tight numbers across all three outcomes, confirming there's no clear favorite despite the gap in the standings. This is our own estimate based on the season's trends, not a betting line or a definitive forecast. On top of that, the model puts a 64% probability on the match going over 2.5 goals and a 41% chance that both teams find the net, which fits the uneven offensive profile both squads have shown.

With Atlante desperate for points to climb out of the bottom of the table and a Santos Laguna side riding the momentum of its recent good form, the match at Estadio Banorte promises to have everything except a predictable outcome.