Atletico's derby dilemma: will Julian Alvarez be ready for Real Madrid?

With just hours to go before the derby, Atletico Madrid still doesn't have a clear answer to the question that matters most heading into Sunday: Julian Alvarez. The Argentine forward is still working his way back from a muscle overload, and whether he'll start the match remains far from certain.

Friday's training session, the first since the 4-0 rout of Osasuna, offered more clues than clarity. Alvarez trained apart from the group, jogging lightly with some limited work alongside his teammates, but he didn't complete the session at full intensity. That's how journalist Francisco Canepa described it from Madrid on Buen Dia ESPN:

Julian jogged separately from the team, at an easy pace. It's still unclear whether he'll be available, but I doubt he won't be called up.Francisco Canepa

Atletico has one final training session scheduled for Saturday before hosting Real Madrid, so those last hours will be crucial in determining the Argentine's condition. Because the real question isn't so much whether he'll make the squad list, it's whether Diego Simeone will dare to start him in a match that demands so much physically.

Under normal circumstances, there wouldn't even be a debate. Alvarez has become an essential piece of the Atletico attack, and his track record against this particular opponent is downright intimidating: four goals in his last six meetings with Real Madrid, two of them coming in that 5-2 win at the Metropolitano last season. That history carries real weight when weighing whether to take the risk.

The forward missed the team's last two matches, against Real Sociedad and Osasuna, because of this same issue. The fact that he's now partially back in training with the group is good news, but the coaching staff will need to carefully weigh the risk before handing him a starting role in a derby that shows no mercy.

Jonathan David, the alternative gaining ground

If Simeone decides not to push it, the natural fallback option has a name: Jonathan David. The Canadian is in good form, having scored in Atletico's last two matches, and looks like the strongest candidate to lead the attack if Alvarez isn't ready in time.

Simeone's list of concerns doesn't end there. Pablo Barrios and Alexander Sorloth are confirmed absences for the derby, while in midfield there's genuine competition between Morten Hjulmand, Koke, Johnny Cardoso and Marcos Llorente for a spot in the starting eleven.

Further forward, the picture looks a bit clearer: Giuliano Simeone, Kang-in Lee and Alex Baena appear set to start, with Ademola Lookman waiting for his chance off the bench. And up top, the question that sums up the whole buildup: Julian Alvarez or Jonathan David.