Atletico heavily favored as winless Deportivo visits the Metropolitano

The Riyadh Air Metropolitano welcomes a Deportivo de A Coruna side this weekend that hasn't won in its last five LaLiga matches, while Atletico Madrid sits second in the table, hungry to keep pace with leaders Barcelona, who have a perfect record atop the standings. For Atletico, every point matters; for Depor, the goal is to halt a slide that's starting to weigh on the club.

Atletico's numbers this season are solid: of 9 matches played, they've won 7, drawn 1 and lost just 1, scoring 19 goals and conceding only 8. That plus-11 goal difference keeps them in second place, 11 points behind the leaders. Over their last five outings they've strung together four wins and a draw, a run that confirms the strong form of Diego Simeone's side. At home in this LaLiga season, across a sample of 4 matches, Atletico is averaging 2.498 goals scored and just 0.743 conceded, keeping a clean sheet in half of those games. Alex Baena stands out as the top scorer in that sample with 5 goals, followed by Jonathan David and Alejandro Grimaldo with 3 apiece.

On the other side, Deportivo de A Coruna sits ninth with 9 matches played, 2 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses, a record that leaves them in mid-table but with no room for error if they want to climb. Recent form hasn't helped: in their last five matches they picked up three draws and two losses, with no wins. On the road this season, across 4 matches, Depor is averaging 1.755 goals scored and the same number conceded, without a single clean sheet. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang leads that sample with 5 goals.

The head-to-head record offers little hope for the Galician side either: in 8 previous meetings, Atletico has won 6, there have been 2 draws, and Deportivo hasn't taken a single victory, with an 11-3 goal difference in favor of the Madrid club.

Probable lineups

For Atletico, the projected lineup (medium confidence) would have Jan Oblak in goal, a back line of Grimaldo, Llorente, Romero and Hancko, a midfield of Giuliano Simeone, Pablo Barrios, Baena and Cardoso, and a front two of Jonathan David and Lee Kang-In. For Deportivo, the likely XI features Leo Roman in goal, a defense of Gimenez, Quagliata, Ximo Navarro and Bright Ede, a midfield of Luismi Cruz, Mario Soriano, Riki Rodriguez and Amatucci, and an attacking pair of Bil Nsongo and Yeremay Hernandez.

What the numbers say

Our model gives a clear edge to the home side, though it doesn't fully close the door on an upset:

Our model's expected goals figures put Atletico at 2.35 and Deportivo at 0.73, for an estimated total of 3.08. These are our own projections, not betting odds, but they make it clear which side has the wind at its back. Our trends also calculate a 63 percent chance the match goes over 2.5 goals, and a 100 percent chance both teams score.

With Atletico defending second place and Deportivo looking to snap a winless run, the Metropolitano promises a match where the favorite is clear, but the ball has yet to be kicked.