Augsburg hosts unbeaten Bayern, who dominate the head-to-head record

FC Augsburg arrives at the WWK ARENA sitting fourth in the Bundesliga, carrying momentum from three straight wins before stumbling with a loss in its most recent outing. Across the pitch will be FC Bayern München, second in the table and still unbeaten in the competition. It's a matchup pitting a team on a hot streak against the only contender that hasn't tasted defeat this season.

Augsburg's Bundesliga record stands at 2 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss through its first four matches, with 11 goals scored and 6 conceded. Over its last five games it has racked up three wins, a draw and a loss, a sample that confirms the overall good form despite the recent stumble. Bayern, meanwhile, is putting together a near-perfect run in the competition: 3 wins and 1 draw in four outings, with 14 goals scored and just 2 allowed. Over its last five matches it has four wins and a draw, with no losses.

In the standings, Bayern sits second with 10 points, just behind league leader Borussia Dortmund, while Augsburg is fourth with 7. The gap between the two right now is 3 points, a sign of how tight things remain at the top, though it's worth remembering that only four matchdays have been played.

It's worth separating those numbers from a different sample: over its last four Bundesliga matches as both home and away side in the 2026 season, Augsburg averages 2.75 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per match, with 25% of its games ending in a clean sheet, and its most productive scoring window falling between minutes 46 and 60. Michael Gregoritsch leads the team as top scorer in that sample with 3 goals, followed by Robin Fellhauer with 2. Bayern, in that same four-match window, averages 3.5 goals scored and just 0.5 conceded, with 50% of matches ending without conceding, and its best scoring window falling between minutes 16 and 30. Michael Olise tops that chart with 4 goals, ahead of Harry Kane with 3.

The head-to-head record clearly favors the Bavarian side: of the 8 matches played, Bayern has won 7 and Augsburg just 1, with no draws, and a goal difference of 22 to 10 in favor of the visitors.

Probable lineups

With high confidence based on recent data, Augsburg could field Finn Dahmen in goal, a back line of Matsima, Banks and Brackelmann, a midfield of Wolf, Rieder, Massengo and Behrens, and up front Gregoritsch, Fellhauer and Kade.

For Bayern, with medium confidence, the projected lineup has Neuer in goal, a defensive line with Upamecano, Tah, Davies, Brown and Stanisic, a midfield of Kimmich, Díaz, Olise and Pavlovic, and Kane leading the attack.

What the odds say

Our model gives a clear edge to the visitors, though it doesn't rule out the home side entirely.

The expected goals we project are 0.94 for Augsburg and 2.77 for Bayern, a combined 3.71 that lines up with the calculated trends: an 88% chance of more than 2.5 goals and a 75% chance of both teams scoring. This is our own estimate based on the season's trends, not a definitive forecast or a betting line.

With Bayern unbeaten in the competition and Augsburg still smarting from its last loss after a strong run, the WWK ARENA will serve as a good gauge of just how far the home side can stretch its solid start against the Bundesliga's current runner-up.