Augsburg and Freiburg Meet at WWK Arena in a Tight Matchup With Goals Expected

The WWK Arena hosts a matchup with an upper-mid-table Bundesliga flavor: FC Augsburg, ninth with 9 points, takes on Freiburg, third with 13. Four points separate them in the standings, and if the numbers from both sides say anything, it's that this won't be a tightly shut-down affair.

Augsburg comes in with a record of 2 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses so far this season, with 17 goals scored and 13 conceded across 7 matches played. Over its last five games the club has managed just one win, two draws and two losses, with the most recent result going its way. Freiburg, for its part, shows a more solid record in the competition: 4 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, with 16 goals scored and only 9 allowed in 7 appearances. Even so, its form over the last five matches doesn't fully match that stat line: two wins and three losses, including a stretch of three straight defeats before the most recent victory.

In the table, Freiburg sits third and Augsburg ninth, with a 4-point gap between them. It's also worth looking at some season trends, though they come from a different sample than the league-wide record: playing at home in the 2026 Bundesliga season, Augsburg averages 1.995 goals scored and 1.243 allowed per match across 4 games, with clean sheets in 25% of them and its most productive stretch between the 46th and 60th minutes. Freiburg, in its away matches that same season, averages 1.33 goals for and 1.33 against across 3 games, with clean sheets in 33% of them and greater danger in the first 15 minutes.

The head-to-head record doesn't point to a clear favorite either: across 8 meetings, Augsburg has won 3, there have been 3 draws and Freiburg has won 2, with 11 goals scored by each side.

Probable Lineups

With medium reliability based on recent patterns, Augsburg would line up with Finn Dahmen in goal; a back line of Chrislain Matsima, Calvin Brackelmann and Juma Bah; a midfield of Han-Noah Massengo, Fabian Rieder, Hennes Behrens and Marius Wolf; and up top Robin Fellhauer, Arijon Ibrahimovic and Rodrigo Ribeiro.

On Freiburg's side, in a projected lineup of lower reliability, Mio Backhaus would start between the posts; Matthias Ginter, Philipp Treu, Jordy Makengo and Max Rosenfelder in defense; Maximilian Eggestein, Yuito Suzuki, Yannik Engelhardt, Niklas Beste and Vincenzo Grifo in midfield; and Igor Matanovic as the lone forward.

What the Numbers Say

Our model projects an evenly matched game, with a slight lean toward Freiburg but nothing that amounts to a clear favorite: the gap between 34% and 39% is minimal, and the 27% chance of a draw reinforces that sense of balance. The expected goals figures, 1.49 for Augsburg and 1.59 for Freiburg, point in the same direction: a close game with goals likely. In fact, the trends show a 71% probability of more than 2.5 goals and a 100% chance that both teams score. All of this is our own estimate, not a betting line.

With those numbers on the table, the match at the WWK Arena promises action at both ends. The question isn't so much who controls the game, but who converts their chances when the scoreline is on the line.