Auxerre and Nice chase first win of the season at the Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps

Auxerre hasn't won a single match in Ligue 1 this season, sitting at 0 for 3 with 11 goals conceded. Nice hasn't found a win either, though it has at least managed two draws. At the Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps, two teams desperate for points collide, and that shared spot at the bottom of the table is exactly what gives this match its edge.

Auxerre's record in the league stands at 0 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses, with 4 goals scored and 11 conceded, numbers that leave the club in 18th place. Its recent form over the last five matches (a sample that includes games outside this competition) shows two straight wins to start, followed by three consecutive losses: a notable drop-off in performance. Nice, meanwhile, has a record of 0 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss, with just 1 goal scored and 4 conceded, sitting in 15th place, just two points above Auxerre. Over its last five matches, Nice has posted one win, two draws and two losses.

It's also worth looking at the trends from the current 2026 Ligue 1 season, though these come from a separate sample and shouldn't be confused with the overall tournament record: across three matches home and away, Auxerre is averaging 1.33 goals scored and 3.67 conceded per game, with no clean sheets, and tends to score most often between the 31st and 45th minutes. Nice, in that same three-match sample, is averaging just 0.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded, with a 33% clean sheet rate, and also tends to score more in that same 31st to 45th minute window.

What the head-to-head history says

The two sides have met 8 times, with a fairly even balance: 2 wins for Auxerre, 2 for Nice and 4 draws. In total goals, Nice holds a slight edge (11 to 10), but the recent history doesn't point clearly in either direction.

Possible lineups

With low reliability since this is a lineup inferred from recent matches, Auxerre could take the field with Mamadou Diop in goal and a back line of Lamine Sy, Sinaly Diomandé, Clément Akpa and Gideon Mensah, while the midfield could feature names like Danny Namaso, Kévin Danois and Naouirou Ahamada, all regulars in recent games.

Nice, also on an estimated basis, could line up with Yéhvann Diouf between the posts, with Jonathan Clauss and Melvin Bard as key figures in midfield alongside Djibril Coulibaly, and Sofiane Diop as the main attacking threat.

The odds

Our model, based on this season's trends, calculates the following for this match:

These numbers don't point to a clear favorite: Auxerre has a slight edge from playing at home, but the margin over both the draw and Nice is narrow. This is our own estimate, not a betting line. The expected goals are similarly close: 1.37 for Auxerre and 1.10 for Nice, for a combined total of 2.47. Additional trends point to a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and just a 33% chance of both teams scoring.

With Auxerre in last place and Nice only a notch above, this clash at the Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps looks every bit like a direct battle to escape the bottom of the table. Neither side has won yet in Ligue 1, so whichever one gets there first will breathe a little easier.