AZ and Juventus meet at the AFAS Stadion in a Europa League clash with no clear favorite

AZ arrives with two wins and a loss in the competition, while Juventus has yet to taste defeat in this Europa League campaign. That contrast, combined with both sides looking to climb the overall standings, adds extra weight to what's coming at the AFAS Stadion.

The Dutch side coached by Leeroy Echteld has racked up 6 goals for and 2 against through three league-phase matches, a record that leaves them with some breathing room but nothing to spare. Their recent form, though, calls for caution: over the last five matches they've posted two wins, a draw and two losses, including a two-game losing streak heading into this one. In this season's Europa League, both home and away, AZ averages 2 goals scored per match and just 0.667 conceded, with a 33 percent clean sheet rate in that sample, and tends to find the net most often between the 76th and 90th minutes.

Juventus, meanwhile, boasts a sturdier record in the tournament: 2 wins, 1 draw and 0 losses, with 9 goals for and 3 against. Over their last five matches the run has been more even, with two wins, a draw and two losses. In that same Europa League sample this season, Luciano Spalletti's side scores 3 goals per match and concedes just 1, also with a 33 percent clean sheet rate, and tends to strike early, within the first 15 minutes. Nick Woltemade stands as their top scorer in that sample with 3 goals, followed by Randal Kolo Muani and Zeki Çelik with 2 apiece. On the Dutch side, Weslley Patati and Mexx Meerdink lead that same category with 2 goals each.

In the overall Europa League standings, Juventus sits seventh with 7 points from 3 matches played, while AZ has yet to appear among the qualified teams shown, a sign that this match could shake things up quite a bit for the Italians.

The probable lineups

For AZ, the projected lineup (flagged as low reliability by the model itself) would have Jari De Busser in goal, a back line of Lewis Schouten, Elijah Dijkstra, Wouter Goes and Mees de Wit, a midfield of Peer Koopmeiners, Ro-Zangelo Daal, Dave Kwakman, Valdemar Byskov and Ayoub Oufkir, with Mexx Meerdink as the lone forward.

Juventus, with a medium-reliability projection, would send out Guglielmo Vicario between the posts, a back four of Bremer, Pierre Kalulu, Jhon Lucumí and Federico Gatti, a midfield featuring Weston McKennie, Douglas Luiz, Kerim Alajbegovic and Teun Koopmeiners, and a front two of Randal Kolo Muani and Nick Woltemade.

What the numbers say

Our model projects a tight match, with a slight lean toward the visitors:

Those numbers are split almost evenly three ways, confirming there's no clear favorite here: this is our own projection, not a betting line. The expected goals figures tell the same story, with 1.28 for AZ and 1.29 for Juventus, for an estimated total of 2.56. Along the same lines, our trend data shows an 83 percent chance the match goes over 2.5 goals and a 67 percent chance both teams find the net.

With those numbers on the table, the AFAS Stadion looks set for an open match, the kind that can be decided by fine margins. AZ needs to snap its recent slide; Juventus needs to keep the unbeaten run it's carrying into this Europa League campaign.