Unbeaten Juventus hosts a Rennes side looking to climb the table in the Europa League

A perfect record and a nearly spotless goal column: that is how Juventus arrives at this Europa League clash at the Allianz Stadium. Two games, two wins and just one goal conceded make the Italians one of the tournament's sturdiest sides so far, and across from them will stand a Rennes team that is also picking up points steadily, though with a more modest scoring record.

Luciano Spalletti's side sits with 6 points from a possible 6 in the competition, with 7 goals scored and just 1 allowed through its two matches. That plus-6 goal difference puts Juventus atop the overall table, even though it shares the points lead with several other clubs. Recent form away from this competition, however, paints a somewhat choppier picture: over its last five matches overall, the Bianconeri have two wins, one draw and two losses.

Rennes, for its part, comes off a draw and a win in its two group-stage matches, with 2 goals scored and 1 allowed, leaving it on 4 points and further back in the overall standings, 2 points behind Juventus. Across its last five matches overall, the French side has also shown some unevenness: two wins, one draw and two losses, with the most recent outing ending in defeat.

One contextual note worth mentioning, though it should not be conflated with the figures above: within this specific Europa League sample, both Juventus and Rennes have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their matches, and both share the same window of peak offensive output, between minutes 76 and 90. For Juventus, Nick Woltemade and Randal Kolo Muani lead the scoring charts in that sample with two goals apiece, while for Rennes the standouts are Aboubakar Nagida and Abdelhamid Aït Boudlal, with one goal each.

The probable lineups

These are projected XIs, flagged as low reliability by the model itself and built from recent starting patterns. For Juventus, expect to see Guglielmo Vicario in goal, a back line of Kalulu, Çelik, Bremer and Lucumí, and a midfield featuring Weston McKennie, Kerim Alajbegovic, Pape Matar Sarr, Nico González and Douglas Luiz, with Randal Kolo Muani leading the attack.

On the Rennes side, Brice Samba would again start in goal, with Cresswell, Frankowski, Rouault, Nagida and Reynolds across the back, Thomasson, Camara and Rongier in midfield, and Estéban Lepaul and Ludovic Blas forming the attacking pair.

What the numbers say before kickoff

Our model gives a clear, though not overwhelming, edge to Juventus to collect the three points at home. Here is how it breaks down the probabilities:

That 56% in favor of the home side leaves reasonable room for an upset: the draw and away win combined add up to 44%, which is far from negligible. In expected goals, the model's own estimate puts Juventus at 2.01 against Rennes' 1.14, a combined total of 3.14 that points to a match with scoring chances for both sides. As always, this is our own projection and not a betting line.

With Juventus looking to keep its perfect start alive and Rennes trying to push into the upper half of the group, the Allianz Stadium should offer a good gauge of how far each side can go in this edition of the Europa League.