AZ rallies with late Meerdink penalty to edge Hapoel Be'er Sheva 2-1 in Europa League

AZ needed just three minutes of the second half to break a scoreless deadlock at AFAS Stadion, and in the end came away with a 2-1 win over Hapoel Be'er Sheva in the Europa League league phase. The match looked to be heading nowhere after a goalless first half, but the second half changed everything in a matter of minutes.

The home side came out with a different energy after the break and found its reward in the 48th minute: Peer Koopmeiners finished with his right foot from the center of the box, low and inside the left post, after a through ball from Valdemar Byskov. The joy didn't last long. Six minutes later, in the 54th, Amankwah Forson equalized for Hapoel with a left-footed strike from the center of the area, assisted by Zahi Ahmed, leveling the score at 1-1 and blowing the match wide open.

The closing stretch is what tipped the scales. In the 73rd minute, Djibril Diop fouled Bendegúz Kovács inside the box, and after a video review, the VAR confirmed the penalty in the 74th minute. A minute later, Mexx Meerdink came on and wasted no time: in the 76th, he converted the penalty with his left foot down the middle of the goal to make it 2-1, the final score. Hapoel pushed until the end, with chances for Javon East and Amankwah Forson, but couldn't find the equalizer.

Dominance by the numbers

AZ was the better side for all 90 minutes, and the stats back that up clearly. The home side controlled possession and created far more chances than its opponent, though it struggled to turn that edge into goals until the second half.

The post-match xG numbers calculated by our model reinforce that sense of dominance: AZ generated 2.98 expected goals to Hapoel's 0.83, a gap that explains why the result ultimately tilted toward the home side despite the brief scare of the equalizer.

Beforehand, our model had projected a 47% chance of an AZ win, a 27% chance of a draw and a 26% chance of a Hapoel win, with total expected goals of 2.86 (1.67 for the home side and 1.19 for the visitors). The final result landed fairly close to that forecast: the favored team won, and the overall scoreline wasn't far off the goals projected before kickoff.

What it means in the standings

In the league phase standings, Hapoel Be'er Sheva is left with just 1 point from two matches played, the product of a draw and a loss, with a goal difference of -1. AZ doesn't appear among the teams listed in this table, but the result leaves the Dutch side with a win that carries weight in the fight to reach the places that matter in this league phase.

The match had a bit of everything: a slow start, a burst of goals packed into a few minutes of the second half, and a spot kick that ended up tipping the balance. For Hapoel, the task of picking up points in this league phase just got harder; for AZ, three points arrive that confirm what the team showed on the field for much of the match.