Hapoel Be'er Sheva and Dinamo Zagreb Clash in the Europa League, with the Croatians as Favorites

There's something curious about this Europa League matchup: it will be played at Arena Giulesti, a borrowed stadium that adds an even more unusual flavor to a clash between Hapoel Be'er Sheva and Dinamo Zagreb. On paper there's a clear favorite, but the numbers suggest it's too early to call the result.

Hapoel Be'er Sheva arrives on shaky footing: in its last five matches it picked up two wins, one draw and two losses, an uneven run that opened with a defeat, righted itself with a win, stalled with a draw, slipped again with another loss and closed out with a victory. It's a team that swings back and forth without any real momentum behind it. Dinamo Zagreb, on the other hand, looks steadier of late: three wins, one draw and just one loss in its last five outings, with that lone stumble sandwiched between victories, including its most recent match.

It's also worth looking at some season-long trends, though these come from separate samples and shouldn't be confused with the head-to-head record. In the 2020 Europa League, playing at home, Hapoel averaged 2 goals scored and 1.667 conceded per match across a small sample of just three games, keeping a clean sheet 33% of the time, with its most productive stretch coming between the 76th and 90th minutes. Dinamo Zagreb, meanwhile, in the 2025 Europa League playing away from home, averaged 1.4 goals scored and 2.2 conceded per match over six appearances, without a single clean sheet (0%), and with its best scoring stretch between the 16th and 30th minutes. In that same sample, Dion Beljo stands out as the club's top scorer with 5 goals, followed by Luka Stojkovic with 2.

The head-to-head record doesn't hide the gap either: the two sides have met twice, with one draw and one win for Dinamo Zagreb, who also lead in combined goals, 7 to Hapoel's 2.

Probable Lineups

On the Israeli side, the projected lineup (medium confidence according to our data) would keep Ofir Marciano in goal, with Pedro Amador, Guy Mizrahi and Itay Rotman as regular fixtures across the back line, joined by Miguel Vitor. In midfield, expect to see Niv Yehoshua, Lucas Ventura and Eliel Peretz, with Javon East and Amir Ganah rounding out a group that has seen heavy rotation in recent weeks.

Dinamo Zagreb, also with a projected lineup of medium confidence, would go again with Ivan Filipovic in net behind a back line of Scott McKenna, Sergi Dominguez, Moris Valincic and Matteo Perez Vinlof. The midfield features Josip Misic, Mateo Lisica, Miha Zajc, Luka Stojkovic and Mislav Orsic, with Dion Beljo leading the line after starting five of the club's last six matches.

What the Numbers Say

Our model gives Dinamo Zagreb a 47% chance of winning, compared to 29% for Hapoel Be'er Sheva and 24% for a draw. The numbers point to a clear edge for the Croatians, but not enough to call this a formality: nearly three out of every ten simulations still end with the home side on top.

The combined expected goals total comes out to 3.53, a figure that lines up with the broader trends: a 63% chance the match goes over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance both teams find the net. It's worth noting these figures are our own estimate based on season trends, not a betting line or a firm prediction.

With a Dinamo Zagreb side that looks somewhat more consistent and a Hapoel Be'er Sheva team searching for continuity, everything points to an open match, with chances at both ends and no result that can be written in before kickoff.