Azerbaijan chases first win against group D2 leaders Lithuania

Two draws in two matches with the top of the group on the line: that's how Lithuania arrives at Palms Sports Arena, where it takes on an Azerbaijan side that has yet to lose in this opening stretch of the UEFA Nations League, but hasn't won either. There are only two points separating the two sides in group D2, and whatever happens on this field could shape the rest of the group stage.

Azerbaijan arrives with a curious record: two games played, two draws, no wins and no losses, with one goal scored and one allowed. It's a side that hasn't collapsed but hasn't delivered a statement result either. Over its last five matches it has posted two wins, two draws and one loss, a slightly more encouraging sample than its tournament-only numbers suggest. Lithuania, meanwhile, sits atop the group with four points from one win and one draw, having scored three goals and conceded just one, a goal difference that puts it in first place two points ahead of today's opponent. Over its own last five matches, Lithuania has also racked up two wins and two draws, with a single defeat mixed in.

The head-to-head history offers no clues either: the two sides have met twice, with two draws and a combined scoreline of 1-1. Neither has ever beaten the other.

Probable lineups

For Azerbaijan, the projected XI (low confidence, since it's drawn from recent matches) would have Rza Cafarov in goal, a back line with Toral Bayramov, Badavi Huseynov and Bahlul Mustafazada, and a midfield led by Mahir Emreli as the most regular presence, joined by names like Aleksey Isayev, Ozan Kokcu and Emin Mahmudov.

Lithuania, also with a low-confidence projected lineup, would again start Tomas Svedkauskas in goal, a defensive line with Edgaras Utkus (a starter in all of the last six matches considered), Vilius Armalas and Artemijus Tutyskinas, and a midfield anchored by Gvidas Gineitis and Justas Lasickas, with Armandas Kucys as the main attacking reference.

What the numbers say

Our model gives a slight edge to the visitors, though without a clear favorite: all three outcomes are fairly evenly spread, with a draw as the single most likely result.

As for expected goals, our own projection has Azerbaijan at 0.89 and Lithuania at 1.28, for a combined total of roughly 2.17 in the match. Those figures back up the idea of an even contest, with slightly more offensive weight on the visitors' side, but without a crushing advantage for either team. Worth noting that this isn't a betting line, just a projection based on the season's trends.

With Lithuania looking to pull away at the top of the group and Azerbaijan trying to snap its run of draws and claim its first win of the tournament, Palms Sports Arena has all the makings of a tight match, the kind decided by small details.