Barcelona brings perfect record to Levante, who fight for points in midtable

The Ciutat de Valencia hosts a Barcelona side that arrives unbeaten with a goal difference that turns heads: 17 goals scored and just 2 conceded through four LaLiga matches. On the other side will be a Levante team scrapping for points in the middle of the table. The contrast in form is obvious before a ball is even kicked.

The home side comes in with a record of one win, two draws and one loss across its four league matches, with 5 goals scored and 5 conceded, leaving it in 11th place. Over its last five matches (a different sample that mixes in other competitions or more recent fixtures), Levante has picked up one win, two draws and two losses, with two defeats at the start of that short stretch followed by a draw, a win and another draw. It's not a bad run, but it's not one that inspires much hope of an upset against the league leader either.

Barcelona, on the other hand, hasn't lost or drawn a single match all season: four wins from four, with 17 goals scored against just 2 allowed. Over its last five games the sequence reads five straight wins. That dominance shows up in the standings too: Barcelona leads with 12 points and a goal difference of +15, while Levante trails by 7 points in the head-to-head table comparison.

It's worth separating those figures from another data set in the report: over its last four LaLiga matches, home and away combined, Barcelona is averaging 4.25 goals scored and just 0.5 conceded per game, with clean sheets in 75% of those matches, and tends to do most of its damage between the 76th and 90th minutes. Raphinha tops the scoring chart in that sample with 6 goals, followed by Lamine Yamal and Fermín López with 4 apiece. Levante, in that same kind of sample, is averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded, with a clean sheet in half its matches, and tends to score between the 16th and 30th minutes; there, Roger Brugué leads with 2 goals, with Jon Ander Olasagasti and Adrián de la Fuente adding one each. These numbers come from a separate sample, not the season standings, but they do paint a picture of each team's profile.

The head-to-head history doesn't offer Levante much comfort either: of the 8 meetings between the two clubs, Barcelona has won 6, there's been one draw and just one win for the home side, with Barcelona outscoring Levante 19 to 11 across those games.

Probable lineups

With the caveat that this is a projected lineup with low reliability, Levante could take the field with Mathew Ryan in goal, a back line of Adrián de la Fuente, Manu Sánchez, Aïssa Mandi and Nacho Pérez, a midfield of Jon Ander Olasagasti, Oriol Rey, Roger Brugué, Enzo Bardeli and Thiago Fernández, with Iván Romero leading the line. Barcelona, also on a projected basis, would field Joan García in goal, a back line of Xavi Espart, Pau Cubarsí, Eric García, Gerard Martín and Andreas Christensen, with Pedri, Fermín López and Marc Bernal in midfield, and Lamine Yamal alongside Raphinha up front.

Our model makes Barcelona the heavy favorite, giving the visitors a 74% chance of victory against just 10% for Levante and 16% for a draw. The expected goals we're projecting point the same way: 1.02 for Levante and 2.80 for Barcelona, a combined total of 3.82. It's worth noting this is our own estimate based on the season's trends, not a betting line or a firm prediction. On top of that, our models put the chance of the match going over 2.5 goals at 63%, and only 25% for both teams to score.

With those numbers on the table, Levante's job is to hold firm against a team that hasn't stopped scoring, while Barcelona will look to keep its perfect record intact.

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