Belgrano Strikes Late to Edge Talleres 1-0 at the Kempes

The Kempes went silent with five minutes left on the clock. Talleres had held firm and had even created more than its opponent, but a counterattack proved costly: Ramiro Hernandes curled a left-footed finish from the center of the box in the 85th minute, bending it into the far corner to give Belgrano a 0-1 win at Estadio Mario Alberto Kempes in Argentina's Primera División.

The first half offered little in the way of clear chances. Talleres started the brighter of the two sides, with efforts from Diego Valoyes and Franco Cristaldo, while Belgrano answered with aerial balls into the box off corner kicks that never found the net. Attempts from Lucas Zelarayán and Emiliano Rigoni also missed the target, and the teams went into the break scoreless.

Talleres came out with more purpose after halftime. Diego Valoyes tested the keeper with a left-footed shot right at the start of the second half, and Matías Catalán came close with a header that grazed the crossbar. The home side kept pushing through Valentín Depietri and Juan Sforza, who both tried their luck from outside the box but couldn't find the finish. The game opened up as both coaches, Omar De Felippe for Talleres and Ricardo Zielinski for Belgrano, turned to their benches, and it was in that final stretch that the decisive blow landed.

The goal came from a fast break: Nicolás Fernández, who had come on just minutes earlier, set up Hernandes for the finish that proved to be the only goal of the match. Trailing on the scoreboard, Talleres pushed for an equalizer with shots from Valoyes, and Nicolás Fernández had another chance for Belgrano in stoppage time, which ran to 5 minutes, but the score held.

What the numbers show

The stats reflect an even contest, with Talleres holding a slight edge in shots on target despite coming away empty handed:

Based on our post-match estimate calculated from the game's shots, the xG finished nearly even: 0.97 for Talleres against 0.99 for Belgrano, a split that confirms just how tightly contested the match was, even though the visitors took all three points with a single clinical finish.

Heading into the match, our projection gave Talleres a 29% chance of winning, 36% for a draw and 35% for Belgrano, with expected goals of 0.84 for the home side and 0.95 for the visitors. The final result lined up well with that forecast: a tight match decided by the smallest of margins, an outcome the model considered likely all along.

What it means in the standings

Talleres de Córdoba sit 15th in Group A with 8 points from 11 matches played (2 wins, 2 draws and 7 losses) and a goal difference of -7. The loss leaves them with no margin for error near the bottom of the table, while Belgrano banked another three points thanks to a cold-blooded finish at just the right moment, in a match where neither side managed to truly take control of the game.