Talleres, desperate for points, hosts a Belgrano riding better form in the Córdoba derby

Talleres needs points like it needs air. Omar De Felippe's side sits 14th in Group A with just 8 points from 10 matches, and hosts Belgrano this Saturday at the Mario Alberto Kempes, with the visitors trending in a completely different direction. This is no ordinary Córdoba derby: it's the team sitting almost dead last against a rival flirting with the upper half of the table.

The home side arrives bruised: of its 10 league matches, it won just 2, drew 2 and lost 6, with a goal difference of -6 (11 goals for, 17 against). The last five games haven't brought much improvement either: two draws, a loss, a win and another loss, good for just one victory in the last five outings. Still, there's one number that offers a sliver of hope: at home in Argentina's Primera División this season, across a sample of 7 matches, Talleres averages 1.28 goals scored and only 0.71 conceded per game, with clean sheets in 43% of those matches, and tends to find the net between the 31st and 45th minutes.

Belgrano, on the other hand, arrives with a different look: 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses in the tournament, also with 11 goals scored but just 7 conceded, a far more solid record. Over its last five matches it has picked up three draws, a loss and a win. As a visitor in this same Primera División, across a sample of 8 matches, Belgrano averages 0.76 goals scored and 1 conceded, keeping a clean sheet in 50% of its road trips, and usually scores between the 46th and 60th minutes.

What the table and the history say

In the Group A standings, Talleres sits 14th with 8 points, while Belgrano isn't even among those "in the mix" near the top, the visiting side operates in a far more comfortable zone of the championship, though the data doesn't specify its exact position relative to Talleres. What is clear is the gap in form between the two sides so far this tournament.

The head-to-head record doesn't favor the home side either: of the 8 matches played between them, Talleres has never won, there have been 7 draws and Belgrano holds the only victory, with an aggregate score of 2 goals for Talleres to 3 for Belgrano.

Possible lineups

For Talleres, based on an estimate drawn from its recent lineups, the team could take the field with Ezequiel Unsain in goal; a back line of Valentín Fascendini, Matías Catalán and Román Riquelme; a midfield of Rick, Augusto Schott, Gabriel Báez, Valentín Depietri and Matías Galarza; and Agustín Álvarez alongside Franco Cristaldo up top.

Belgrano, also likely, would line up with Thiago Cardozo between the posts; a back line of Lisandro López, Leonardo Morales, Alcides Benítez and Adrián Spörle; a midfield of Franco Vázquez, Emiliano Rigoni, Juan Velázquez, Adrián Sánchez and Lucas Zelarayán; with Nicolás Fernández leading the attack. Zelarayán, with 4 goals in the sample of trends as a visitor, stands out as the main offensive threat to watch.

What the model says

The numbers are nearly even between a draw and a visitor's win, with Talleres a notch below but not out of the picture. This is our model's own estimate, based on the season's trends, and not a betting line or a closed forecast. The expected goals back up that tight reading: 0.84 for Talleres and 0.95 for Belgrano, a combined 1.78 that doesn't suggest a high scoring affair. The probability of both teams scoring sits at 45%, while the chance of the match going over 2.5 goals is just 40%.

With a home side desperate to climb out of the basement and a Belgrano team arriving in much better shape, the Kempes will measure more than just the usual derby intensity: it will measure how far Talleres's best home form can go in holding off a rival that, on paper, arrives in better standing.