Benfica hosts cellar-dwelling Lech Poznan with perfect Europa League record on the line

Three Europa League matches, three wins and ten goals scored against just two conceded. Benfica arrives at the Estadio da Luz with a perfect start and the intention of staying near the top of the table, while Lech Poznan sits last in the competition, without a win and with a goal difference of minus 8. Those are the two teams in this match, and the contrast in the numbers already says plenty about what to expect from this clash.

Marco Silva's side isn't just winning, it's dominating. Their record in the tournament stands at 3 wins in 3 matches played, with 10 goals scored and only 2 conceded. Looking at recent form, the run is even more emphatic: five wins in the last five matches. In the standings, Benfica sits second with 9 points, one point behind leaders Olympiakos, and shares goal difference with Bayer Leverkusen. That said, the samples shouldn't be mixed: over their last three Europa League matches (home and away) the team has averaged 3.33 goals scored per game and just 0.667 conceded, with 33% clean sheets and the 76th to 90th minute stretch as the most productive scoring window. Vangelis Pavlidis and Jhon Duran stand out as the top scorers in that sample, with two goals each.

On the other side, the picture for Lech Poznan is the opposite. Their record in the tournament shows 0 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, with just 1 goal scored and 9 conceded. Recent form offers a bit more hope, with three wins, a draw and a loss in their last five matches, though those results don't come from the Europa League. In the standings, the Polish side sits 32nd with 1 point, 8 points behind Benfica. Their specific numbers in the European competition (home and away, across three matches) are telling: 0.333 goals scored per game, 3 conceded and 0% clean sheets. Leo Bengtsson, with one goal, is the only name they have among the scorers in that sample.

The head-to-head record between the two sides doesn't suggest an upset either: in the two matches they've played, Benfica won both, with a combined 8 goals scored against just 2 for Lech Poznan.

Probable lineups

For Benfica, the projected lineup (low reliability, according to the projection itself) would have Samuel Soares in goal, with a back line of Alexander Bah, Tomas Araujo, Samuel Dahl and Clement Lenglet. In midfield, Joao Palhinha, Gianluca Prestianni, Fredrik Aursnes, Andreas Schjelderup and Dodi Lukebakio would feature, with Vangelis Pavlidis as the attacking reference. For Lech Poznan, with high reliability in the projection, the probable eleven would have Mateusz Lis between the posts, a defense of Joel Pereira, Mateusz Skrzypczak, Terry Yegbe and Michal Gurgul, a midfield with Radoslaw Murawski, Pablo Rodriguez, Patrik Walemark, Antoni Kozubal and Leo Bengtsson, and Mikael Ishak up front.

What the numbers say

Our model shows a clear edge for the home side, though it doesn't fully rule out other outcomes:

The expected goals also back up that reading: our own estimate puts it at 2.57 expected goals for Benfica against 1.08 for Lech Poznan, a total of 3.64 that lines up with the 67% probability of the match going over 2.5 goals. The probability of both teams scoring, meanwhile, sits at 33%, which suggests a match where Lech Poznan fails to score wouldn't be any surprise. The usual caveat applies: these are our own estimates, not betting odds.

With Benfica needing to keep winning to avoid losing ground on the leaders and Lech Poznan forced to react after a start that leaves them bottom of the table, the Estadio da Luz hosts this Europa League clash with the favoritism clearly on one side, though as always, the result will be decided on the pitch.