Benfica routs Lech Poznan 3-1 to seize control of Europa League

Barely five minutes had gone by when Rafa had already gotten the scoring started: a right-footed finish from close range for Benfica's 1-0. The match, part of the Europa League, finished 3-1 at the Estádio da Luz, and from that opening sequence it was clear Lech Poznan were in for a long night.

The early goal was no fluke. Just two minutes earlier, Jhon Durán had already tested the goalkeeper, who produced a solid save. Benfica took control from the opening whistle, and throughout the first half they racked up chance after chance: Claudio Echeverri had three clear attempts, Durán kept pressing on his side, and Souffian El Karouani also forced a save with a shot from outside the box. Lech Poznan barely threatened, managing only a shot from Pablo Rodríguez that Anatoliy Trubin handled without trouble. Given that level of dominance, the 1-0 scoreline at halftime almost felt tight.

The second half put the game away

The second half picked up right where the first left off, with Benfica pushing forward and Lech Poznan hanging on as best they could. The breakthrough came in the 66th minute, when Gianluca Prestianni, just off the bench, finished with his left foot off a Heorhiy Sudakov assist to make it 2-0. The game looked all but over, but Lech Poznan answered almost immediately: five minutes later, Leo Bengtsson, also a recent substitute, pulled one back to make it 2-1 with a shot from the center of the box that injected some late tension.

That tension didn't last long, though. Benfica kept creating danger through Dodi Lukébakio and Jhon Durán, both testing the keeper from distance, until the 89th minute, when Sudakov capped a counterattack, finishing right-footed off an assist from Enzo Barrenechea to make it 3-1, the final score. It was the perfect ending to an offensive showcase that the final tally reflects fairly.

Numbers that back up the dominance

The stats confirm exactly what played out on the field: a Benfica side far superior in nearly every facet of the game.

The 24 shots to Lech Poznan's 6 already tell much of the story, but another figure illustrates it even better: according to our own estimate calculated from the match's shot data, Benfica generated 3.58 expected goals compared to just 0.52 for Lech Poznan. In other words, the Portuguese side didn't just win, they deserved to win by an even wider margin than the final score suggests.

Before kickoff, we had projected a Benfica win at 69% probability, against 18% for a draw and 13% for a visitor's win, with total expected goals of 3.64 (2.57 for the home side and 1.08 for the away side). The result lined up fairly well with that forecast: both the home win and the way the goals broke down matched what was expected before the opening whistle.

What it means for the standings

With this result, Benfica now have 12 points from four matches, a perfect record with a goal difference of plus 10, putting them in first place. Lech Poznan, on the other hand, sit on just 1 point from their four outings with a goal difference of minus 10, well adrift in the table: the gap between the two sides stands at 11 points. Two completely opposite realities that tonight's match at the Estádio da Luz only confirmed.