Boca Juniors hosts a struggling Union Santa Fe and enters as the heavy favorite at La Bombonera

La Bombonera welcomes a visitor that's limping in: Boca Juniors have racked up four wins in their last five matches, with a single draw mixed in, while Union Santa Fe have dropped their last two games after winning three in a row. The matchup is part of the Argentina Primera Division, and although neither side is fighting for the top spots, there's still plenty of room to climb back toward the summit if the momentum holds.

In league play, Boca sit at 4 wins, 5 draws and 1 loss through 10 matches, with 14 goals scored and 11 allowed, putting them fifth in Group A with 17 points. Union, meanwhile, have been more erratic: 4 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses, with 17 goals scored and 16 allowed, ninth with 13 points. The gap between the two sides in the standings is just 4 points, which confirms this matchup is closer than the recent form might suggest.

It's worth looking at the home and away splits separately, even if they come from a smaller sample: playing at home this season, Boca average 1 goal scored and 0.38 allowed per match, with a clean sheet in 63% of their 8 home games. Union, on the road this same season, show a more open profile: 1.62 goals scored and 1.88 allowed per match, with clean sheets in 0% of their 8 away games. These trends paint a clear contrast between Boca's solidity at home and Union's fragility away from Santa Fe.

History doesn't favor the visitor

The head-to-head numbers are emphatic: of the 8 matches played between the two clubs, Boca won 2, there were 6 draws and Union Santa Fe have never won. The aggregate scoreline also favors the home side, 8 goals to 6.

Probable lineups

With low confidence according to our own projection, Boca could start with Alvaro Montero in goal, a back line of Lautaro Blanco, Facundo Herrera, Lautaro Di Lollo and Leandro Lozano, the double pivot of Leandro Paredes and Santiago Ascacibar, and up top Leonel Flores, Alan Velasco and Miguel Merentiel, who also leads the team's scoring chart at home this season with 5 goals. On Union's side, with medium confidence, Matias Mansilla looks set to start between the posts, a back line with Juan Pablo Luduena, Lucas Ayala and Juan Pintado, a crowded midfield featuring Lucas Menossi, Brahian Cuello, Julian Palacios, Emilio Giaccone and Ignacio Malcorra, and the attacking duo of Marcelo Estigarribia and Cristian Tarragona, the latter Union's top scorer on the road with 7 goals.

What the numbers say

Our model gives the match a clear, if not overwhelming, edge to the home side:

The expected goals figures back that up: 1.83 for Boca against 0.78 for Union, a combined total of 2.61. The probability of both teams scoring sits at 56%, while the chance of the match going over 2.5 goals drops to 38%. This is our own estimate based on the season's trends, not a betting line or a definitive forecast.

With home advantage as its main argument and a head-to-head record that has never gone Union's way, Boca comes in as the clear favorite, though the numbers leave a sliver of room for an upset. La Bombonera, once again, will do the rest.