Bodø/Glimt looks to bounce back from 0-5 rout against a Dortmund side on a roll in the Champions League

Conceding five goals in a single match leaves a mark that's hard to shake off, and that's exactly what Bodø/Glimt carries into this clash with Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League. The Norwegians arrive with the leakiest defense in the competition so far, while the Germans are riding a win and looking to keep their momentum going at the Aspmyra Stadion.

Bodø/Glimt opened its league phase campaign with a defeat that cost it zero goals scored and five conceded, a blow that leaves the club pointless after its only match so far. Over its last five matches, however, the picture looks different: three wins, a draw and a loss, including a run of three straight victories before that recent stumble. Dortmund, meanwhile, opened its campaign with a 3-2 win, a result that leaves it with a perfect record in the tournament so far, and over its last five matches it has racked up four wins and a draw, with no losses in that stretch.

In the overall standings, both sides sit near the bottom simply because so little has been played: Dortmund sits in 12th place with 3 points, while Bodø/Glimt is rock bottom in 36th with no points and a goal difference of -5. The gap between the two in the table stands at 3 points, though it's worth not jumping to conclusions: with just one match played apiece, the standings still say little about each squad's true level.

The head-to-head history between the two is short but even: they've met just once, in a 2-2 draw that leaves no clear favorite heading into this new meeting.

Probable lineups

For Bodø/Glimt, the projected lineup (medium confidence) has Nikita Haikin in goal, with Fredrik Sjøvold, Odin Bjørtuft and Fredrik Bjørkan across the back, Patrick Berg and Sondre Fet in midfield, and an attacking trio of Sondre Auklend, Ole Didrik Blomberg and Jens Petter Hauge, alongside Andreas Helmersen.

On Dortmund's side, also as a projected XI, Gregor Kobel would start in goal, with Waldemar Anton, Joane Gadou and Nico Schlotterbeck in defense, a midfield of Daniel Svensson, Felix Nmecha, Julian Ryerson, Maximilian Beier, Joey Veerman and Jobe Bellingham, and Serhou Guirassy leading the line. Guirassy, in fact, stands as Dortmund's top scorer in this season's Champions League, with two goals in the sample recorded so far.

What the numbers say

Our model gives a slight edge to the home side, though not by a wide margin:

The percentage split favors Bodø/Glimt, but Dortmund's 30% and the 23% chance of a draw make clear that nothing is settled: this is an in-house estimate based on the season's trends, not a definitive forecast or a betting line. The combined expected goals total of 3.69 also points to a match with chances at both ends.

With a Bodø/Glimt side needing to respond after its opening setback and a Dortmund team riding the momentum of its win and its strong recent form, the match at the Aspmyra Stadion promises plenty of action in both penalty areas.