Bologna rallies past Monza with three penalties, wins 2-1 at the Dall'Ara

Barely five minutes had gone by at the Renato Dall'Ara when Gustavo Varela made it 0-1 from the penalty spot, after a foul by Arthur Theate inside the area. Bologna were forced to come from behind in a match they ended up winning 2-1 against Monza, with another penalty in between and a third one missed late on.

Monza's early goal came from a play involving Dany Mota, who was brought down in the box, and Varela made no mistake, finishing to the right side of the goal. Bologna needed half an hour to find an answer: in the 32nd minute, Tommaso Pobega equalized after a cross from Juan Miranda that came from a corner kick, finishing with a low left-footed shot just inside the post. The score was 1-1 at halftime, after Jens Odgaard and Lewis Ferguson had also tried their luck without success in the first half.

In the second half, VAR once again became part of the story. In the 55th minute, officials reviewed a fall by Theate in the area and awarded a penalty to Bologna. Federico Bernardeschi stepped up three minutes later and, with his left foot, sent the ball to the right side of the goal for what would prove to be the winning 2-1. The match still had a third penalty in store: in the 76th minute, a handball by Nadir Zortea inside the box led to another spot kick, this time for Monza, but Patrick Cutrone, who had come on just minutes earlier, squandered it in the 80th minute with a shot that went just wide of the right post. That sealed the outcome.

What the numbers say

Bologna controlled possession and generated more offensive volume, though without an overwhelming difference in clear chances.

According to our post-match estimate, Bologna generated 2.842 expected goals compared to Monza's 1.767, a gap that lines up with the control the home side had for much of the match, even amid the scoreboard swings.

Beforehand, we had projected a 63% win probability for Bologna, 23% for a draw and just 14% for Monza, with an expected goals forecast of 2.09 to 0.92 in favor of the home team. The final result ended up matching that favoritism, though the path there was bumpier than expected: Monza struck first and even had a chance to equalize from the penalty spot late on before Cutrone missed his shot.

What it means in the standings

With this result, Bologna reaches 14 points from 10 matches played, with a record of 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses, sitting in ninth place in Serie A. Monza, on the other hand, continue to struggle near the bottom: they remain on 7 points from 10 matches, with 2 wins, 1 draw and 7 losses, in 16th place. The points gap between the two sides in the table stands at 7, a reflection of the very different seasons each is having.

The match was marked by three VAR interventions involving penalties, something unusual even for a league where reviews have become part of the landscape. For Bologna, the takeaway is a positive one: they came back from an early deficit and held on to the lead despite the penalty against them. For Monza, Cutrone's miss from the spot leaves the feeling of a missed opportunity to at least take a point away from the Dall'Ara.